Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x290e8e125c5f8523f21500cc59c186f2c23762da51eec212c9dd956e5dabae3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $527,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $462,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $527,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74db…4ca5backed Yes | 2c | 55,000$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.82 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…4341backed Yes | 2c | 19,542$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04fa…6c06backed Yes | 5c | 18,099$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.95 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 5c | 15,612$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.01 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2d…1039backed Yes | 1c | 14,774$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd049…5de7backed Yes | 7c | 12,510$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 11,932$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.09 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…c88bbacked Yes | 2c | 11,442$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d85…a385backed Yes | 2c | 11,186$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6591…d021backed Yes | 2c | 9,877$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…2b31backed Yes | 5c | 9,597$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…f0bebacked Yes | 1c | 7,734$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8722…cfadbacked Yes | 4c | 7,650$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 6c | 6,999$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.94 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 4c | 6,500$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.83 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda5b…19d9backed Yes | 7c | 5,988$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 5,978$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.33 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…3911backed Yes | 2c | 5,267$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…0b1abacked Yes | 1c | 4,874$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,917$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x525d…a701backed Yes | 1c | 3,489$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 3,211$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d6…58bcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,167$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed Yes | 2c | 2,886$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15eb…8dc0backed Yes | 8c | 2,838$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…f2ffbacked Yes | 4c | 2,755$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63de…a49bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 4c | 2,471$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.52 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,395$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…c1eebacked Yes | 5c | 2,365$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ef…b670backed Yes | 3c | 2,240$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d09…0852backed Yes | 1c | 2,125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 1c | 2,122$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bee…0918backed Yes | 5c | 2,039$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…1055backed Yes | 5c | 1,964$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf74…2cefbacked Yes | 1c | 1,750$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,662$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.96 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,642$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…e89bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,396$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 5c | 1,309$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 5c | 1,300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…6b49backed Yes | 2c | 1,256$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee7…93babacked Yes | 3c | 1,227$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…d479backed Yes | 5c | 1,090$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,033$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 3c | 1,024$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e73…7683backed Yes | 2c | 1,014$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…f05cbacked Yes | 3c | 905.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf595…8413backed Yes | 2c | 880$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0817…3df2backed Yes | 2c | 850$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…118fbacked Yes | 2c | 833.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…8bd6backed Yes | 4c | 804.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1a…7badbacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd8…aa00backed Yes | 3c | 689.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fe…fd3dbacked Yes | 2c | 652.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed Yes | 4c | 640.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 564.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…6578backed Yes | 5c | 560$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d8…5223backed Yes | 6c | 535$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd1…4ffbbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb57…790cbacked Yes | 8c | 462.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…3e56backed Yes | 6c | 449.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…8519backed Yes | 6c | 438.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…87a9backed Yes | 5c | 431.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…11fabacked Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x559b…1202backed Yes | 3c | 393.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…4682backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…b966backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da6…388fbacked Yes | 7c | 285$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68b5…63b2backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…25cebacked Yes | 6c | 202$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…7765backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…2a6dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x049d…ee15backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd8…6525backed Yes | 6c | 176.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2d…2ab5backed Yes | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.