TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Thunder

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Nuggets, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,468,743
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,341,870

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,468,743 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 660 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4259…936fbacked Nuggets21c418,103$87,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,752.988333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Nuggets20c350,327$68,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,898.9910357.3%59 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Thunder79c179,988$142,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,997.4414052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e11…9bacbacked Nuggets22c133,445$29,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,957.962138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Thunder72c133,068$96,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,820.6518146.4%84 W · 97 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Nuggets25c106,309$26,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,426.1728341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc70…1e2abacked Nuggets2c100,105$2,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,192.171637.5%6 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick20cpaid+38.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Nuggets22c94,337$21,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,104.61838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73cb…b0d0backed Thunder78c72,267$56,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,898.837647.4%36 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Nuggets21c66,930$14,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,034.4310926.6%29 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Thunder77c60,460$46,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,698.6628241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Thunder61c58,329$35,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,468.5616537%61 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5f4…bc4fbacked Nuggets23c57,836$13,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,276.051526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-62.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Nuggets19c55,671$10,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,667.6966732.4%216 W · 451 L+41.8wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93fc…34b6backed Nuggets21c50,000$10,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,5004025%10 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-47.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Thunder55c45,769$25,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,612.4446426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Nuggets20c38,957$7,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,854.1396447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d23…aa99backed Thunder79c34,897$27,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,328.312147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Thunder79c30,499$24,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,404.885959.3%35 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Nuggets20c30,094$6,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,141.0314434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfc36…1fa0backed Nuggets18c30,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4005950.8%30 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Thunder79c28,535$22,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,992.462351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Thunder54c28,373$15,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,987.011,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Thunder79c23,128$18,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,856.819149.7%95 W · 96 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8aa…ae12backed Nuggets20c20,000$3,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9707829.5%23 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf19…49bebacked Nuggets0c19,800$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.82352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Thunder71c18,844$13,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,553.8970640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Thunder56c18,679$10,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,204.371,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Thunder79c18,121$14,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,786.5766853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06ee…ed7bbacked Nuggets61c18,096$11,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,111.71933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…1dd2backed Thunder80c16,814$13,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,362.766344.4%28 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6790…5e06backed Nuggets20c16,000$3,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1907335.6%26 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Thunder79c16,000$12,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,36047848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Nuggets22c15,747$3,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,422.3837734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Nuggets26c15,544$4,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,048.987261.1%44 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xbaf9…c201backed Nuggets22c15,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,300425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-65.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb42d…3d11backed Nuggets21c14,545$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1003636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x188d…6583backed Nuggets18c13,971$2,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5405038%19 W · 31 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb0d…9ff3backed Nuggets22c12,467$2,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,752.9950%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf35…b5eabacked Nuggets23c12,440$2,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,830.9713239.4%52 W · 80 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Nuggets27c12,000$3,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,28036843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Nuggets42c11,605$4,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,900.712714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-70.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Nuggets45c11,371$5,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,081.477929.1%23 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0deb…12c9backed Nuggets64c10,187$6,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,519.8830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0dcb…a331backed Nuggets44c10,187$4,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,504.953342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc84…3e67backed Nuggets44c10,049$4,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3772842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Nuggets27c10,012$2,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,718.4825536.9%94 W · 161 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6094…3bd9backed Nuggets22c10,003$2,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200.78536.5%31 W · 54 L+8.8wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+61.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Thunder37c10,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,30080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Thunder78c9,926$7,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,220.581,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Nuggets20c9,762$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00042827.3%117 W · 311 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Nuggets20c9,400$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,88813636.8%50 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Nuggets25c8,749$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20031453.5%168 W · 146 L+0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Nuggets25c8,666$2,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,174.6238027.1%103 W · 277 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Nuggets35c8,664$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00023342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07dd…ed9dbacked Nuggets22c8,255$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,787.4914040%56 W · 84 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Nuggets19c8,100$1,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,569.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1571…c4e6backed Nuggets24c8,005$1,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,908.419419.1%37 W · 157 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aca…8b98backed Nuggets37c8,000$2,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9203036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b7e…ce6dbacked Thunder77c7,787$6,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.793644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder52c7,498$3,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,628.213,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x363a…df44backed Nuggets21c7,143$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5004841.7%20 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5fb…84b5backed Thunder58c7,074$4,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,977.831782.4%14 W · 3 L+4.3wins+0.25per pick57cpaid+74.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Nuggets60c6,646$3,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,970.893948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b0…6815backed Thunder80c6,637$5,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,327.441770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x171f…95fbbacked Nuggets32c6,634$2,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,154.291741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+98.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20e2…667fbacked Thunder79c6,118$4,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.724032.5%13 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e44…e83fbacked Nuggets40c5,616$2,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,253.451136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Thunder69c5,565$3,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.9288053.8%473 W · 407 L+52.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Nuggets44c5,476$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4005536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x94a1…ec2fbacked Thunder80c5,300$4,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0292…4211backed Nuggets19c5,264$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.161361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Thunder79c5,000$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,05079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Nuggets28c5,000$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,39013133.6%44 W · 87 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa34e…895ebacked Nuggets20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002924.1%7 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nuggets20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e05…01cdbacked Nuggets41c4,927$2,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,018.671942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-5.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3cf…a5d4backed Nuggets41c4,922$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002572%18 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+26.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Nuggets42c4,830$2,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0419747.4%46 W · 51 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Nuggets16c4,589$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.7176850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ce…bca1backed Nuggets22c4,545$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00034747%163 W · 184 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Nuggets72c4,472$3,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,231.6836057.5%207 W · 153 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Thunder69c4,264$2,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,321.9836748.2%177 W · 190 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Nuggets37c4,223$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.955736.8%21 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Nuggets20c4,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7802532%8 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Nuggets19c4,000$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76893041.9%390 W · 540 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce4d…a7fabacked Thunder43c3,900$1,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2403641.7%15 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Thunder77c3,766$2,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.245050%25 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Nuggets52c3,701$1,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,910.781,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Nuggets1c3,382$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.971088.3%9 W · 99 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa78d…e8cbbacked Nuggets2c3,375$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.252920.7%6 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick8cpaid+24.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Thunder60c3,220$1,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,296.8234425.6%88 W · 256 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b92…046ebacked Nuggets52c3,218$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.4516140.4%65 W · 96 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Thunder79c3,200$2,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68266153.3%352 W · 309 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Nuggets22c3,182$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70047542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e47…a9a9backed Nuggets23c3,098$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.3834852.3%182 W · 166 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed Nuggets42c3,083$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.6517044.1%75 W · 95 L-0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Thunder30c3,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10016641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x50ff…72a4backed Nuggets21c3,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Thunder80c3,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.