NBA · resolved market
Over 219.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3db5ad811314903592a4a5a7208fe36090345c77bf1c7cade6eb7684027ec495
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Under | 47c | 538$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.89 | 686 | 42.1%289 W · 397 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 43c | 323.12$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.59 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Under | 56c | 312.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.12 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Over | 52c | 299.22$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.78 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f84…dd89backed Under | 57c | 228.62$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.62 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 51c | 190$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 56c | 102.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…8a0bbacked Over | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 106 | 56.6%60 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Under | 43c | 47.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Under | 46c | 45.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Over | 57c | 36.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Under | 43c | 31.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over 219.5this page
- Nuggets vs. ThunderThunder won
- Over 217.5Under won
- Over 222.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.