NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84f56ff80b7a2123f51a28c2433b2b9124d526f436bf8b3b118db9d38b56d568
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Thunder, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12bd…730dbacked Thunder | 49c | 11,521$5,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,674 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Thunder | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Nuggets | 52c | 9,000$4,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,279.87 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Thunder | 48c | 7,000$3,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,340 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Nuggets | 50c | 6,414$3,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,207.23 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Nuggets | 51c | 4,241$2,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,078.09 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Nuggets | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Nuggets | 53c | 1,900$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.15 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Nuggets | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 47c | 1,045$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.15 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nuggets | 50c | 871.71$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.52 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…ae6ebacked Nuggets | 52c | 769$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.12 | 136 | 36.8%50 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Nuggets | 52c | 500$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Thunder | 51c | 355.51$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.31 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…6130backed Thunder | 47c | 333.28$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.64 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Nuggets | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Nuggets | 52c | 191.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.51 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Nuggets | 53c | 188$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Thunder | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Thunder | 50c | 128$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Thunder | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Nuggets | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b9…8365backed Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Nuggets | 48c | 65.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Thunder | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Thunder | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b6…27ddbacked Nuggets | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Nuggets | 64c | 35.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f6…0bb0backed Thunder | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. ThunderThunder won
- Over 217.5Under won
- Over 219.5Under won
- Over 222.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.