Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa49f0ca99af0fa71e55eea8f2ab4de3695371f3041182feb20fee90057b45342
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4760…0a49backed Yes | 57c | 4,672$2,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.16 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 38c | 2,816$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.26 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 56c | 2,716$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.06 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 38c | 2,125$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.5 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d34cbacked No | 44c | 1,128$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.62 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 62c | 1,046$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.92 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb301…9845backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…f250backed Yes | 40c | 995$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b9…1cd7backed No | 72c | 995$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aee…c284backed Yes | 28c | 995$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d76…0e75backed Yes | 26c | 980$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…f330backed Yes | 44c | 933.35$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 74c | 916.18$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.63 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7622…0fd0backed Yes | 40c | 851.05$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +278.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 18c | 768.97$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.75 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 61c | 733.82$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.63 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked No | 43c | 729.59$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.58 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…9226backed Yes | 42c | 703.25$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 40c | 600.21$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.03 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 56c | 597.22$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.19 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf5…370dbacked No | 74c | 505$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 41c | 498.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.59 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…a13cbacked Yes | 30c | 450$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…b971backed Yes | 41c | 424.89$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 51c | 416.79$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.42 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6112…79c6backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 67c | 382$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.6 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 13c | 380.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7704…a121backed No | 45c | 354.68$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fa…10e7backed No | 37c | 344.59$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8895…cb36backed No | 74c | 335$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 58c | 300$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 62c | 299.97$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 26c | 292.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617d…fd9fbacked Yes | 33c | 289$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.37 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed No | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 51c | 249.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed Yes | 37c | 237.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed No | 57c | 227.95$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.02 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eec…8f96backed Yes | 23c | 219.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 62c | 211.23$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.57 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 33c | 205.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked Yes | 53c | 194.52$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 60c | 194$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.76 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 48c | 180.81$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.07 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed No | 65c | 180$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 52c | 169.65$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 62c | 160.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…42ebbacked No | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed Yes | 20c | 158.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -7.2wins | -0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 36c | 155.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.59 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…0b0cbacked Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.9wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 66c | 151.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…0776backed No | 61c | 150$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 70c | 140$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…b3e8backed No | 34c | 139.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c3…f78cbacked Yes | 37c | 135.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48d…44fabacked Yes | 37c | 135.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c97…0004backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…6485backed Yes | 59c | 122.6$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…8908backed Yes | 53c | 119.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17c…8c0dbacked Yes | 53c | 112.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e7…1e00backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 40c | 105.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed Yes | 38c | 104.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 47c | 100.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…0a2cbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…c971backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…d7f2backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…6f77backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4481…e934backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a9…4ea4backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked No | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…a1fabacked Yes | 37c | 93.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 28c | 84.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed No | 68c | 82.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 51c | 82.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 73c | 81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e0…6c39backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…0673backed Yes | 75c | 78.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4332…975dbacked No | 66c | 76.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5456…f26cbacked Yes | 66c | 75.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec63…85ddbacked Yes | 66c | 75.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 36c | 73.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 35c | 72.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 71.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff24…ffb1backed Yes | 38c | 71.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…9fd5backed Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc625…87f7backed Yes | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…d03dbacked Yes | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…81fbbacked Yes | 42c | 63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?this page
- Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Dome" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.