Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88342c5f4241f6ce220b32e19632f21543489b7c7c8627e4f9e219cf2d1eb525
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 72c | 6,357$4,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,786.92 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Yes | 80c | 5,220$4,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,158 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 62c | 3,677$2,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.23 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…faadbacked No | 31c | 3,449$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,368.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked No | 34c | 3,449$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,276.34 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 48c | 3,242$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,694.42 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 23c | 3,067$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,377.22 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed No | 42c | 2,345$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.58 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 28c | 1,785$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.09 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 29c | 1,650$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.72 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x762f…b37cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,528$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,488$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 47c | 1,455$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.35 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 51c | 1,013$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.65 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd672…9d50backed No | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a83…d804backed No | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…c3f1backed Yes | 38c | 991.66$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.37 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 49c | 963.98$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.34 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 41c | 946.02$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.86 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…3843backed Yes | 76c | 937.4$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.54 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a26…a80fbacked Yes | 67c | 920.6$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 25c | 918.24$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.52 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…4be4backed Yes | 53c | 915$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 66c | 865.02$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.35 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 33c | 860.62$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.96 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed Yes | 35c | 811.42$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.6 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -7.2wins | -0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…074fbacked Yes | 73c | 795.55$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 17c | 732.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.38 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…e211backed Yes | 63c | 713.63$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 70c | 709$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.03 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…cbbbbacked No | 72c | 693.64$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.02 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 37c | 668.99$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.53 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…510ebacked No | 51c | 591.58$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf770…f4bdbacked Yes | 77c | 584.1$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed No | 32c | 517.87$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…7f0fbacked Yes | 75c | 514$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 68c | 499.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 44c | 478.01$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.76 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x070b…2d6dbacked No | 43c | 463.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…421abacked Yes | 77c | 455.58$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 78cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 38c | 436$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.59 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083b…a478backed Yes | 67c | 421.39$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 34c | 419.83$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.35 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 26c | 417.39$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.87 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x565a…a8f2backed Yes | 67c | 410$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 30c | 406.27$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.8 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 23c | 400$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…a18fbacked Yes | 24c | 370.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 36c | 351.35$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.21 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf42…09cdbacked Yes | 59c | 336.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde70…81fdbacked Yes | 71c | 328.29$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 31c | 321.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.56 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…1338backed Yes | 76c | 321$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.23 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 70c | 320$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.8 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 23c | 300$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 29c | 299.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.99 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 38c | 293.91$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.91 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe85…28e1backed Yes | 67c | 285$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…f1b3backed Yes | 71c | 282.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 67cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11c4…4211backed Yes | 69c | 281.23$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…9226backed Yes | 43c | 276.21$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 63c | 271.36$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.96 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 37c | 269.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.09 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 71c | 242.4$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.96 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbd…2503backed Yes | 53c | 230.26$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…b231backed Yes | 37c | 227.78$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 44c | 220$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 49c | 220$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…b08abacked Yes | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8be4…58d9backed Yes | 49c | 220$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944d…d633backed Yes | 47c | 220$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf915…be05backed Yes | 51c | 218.29$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed No | 51c | 217$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 40c | 211.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.16 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 48c | 210.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd181…3040backed Yes | 67c | 210$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81b7…f5c9backed Yes | 55c | 208.5$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…d7f2backed Yes | 59c | 205.29$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed No | 67c | 203$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb29b…c61cbacked Yes | 50c | 200.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 26c | 200.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.08 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…b1e4backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6112…79c6backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…5defbacked Yes | 15c | 190$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7704…a121backed Yes | 75c | 185.37$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e5…b7e6backed Yes | 46c | 177.95$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.86 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…7935backed No | 35c | 169.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…d9a2backed Yes | 73c | 164.95$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 56c | 159.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc83c…88d8backed Yes | 63c | 158.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430c…0c89backed Yes | 64c | 155.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…0e43backed Yes | 46c | 154.47$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8be…79eebacked Yes | 59c | 153.2$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 65c | 143$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 32c | 140.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x349c…7413backed Yes | 14c | 140$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5456…f26cbacked Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?this page
- Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Dome" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.