Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc91475bcd9262b38bd5108d38fe139343c6f74ba730693b2bb1833e07ba23e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 6,708$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,636$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.83 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 15c | 1,560$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.79 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 14c | 1,472$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.08 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…81fbbacked Yes | 36c | 1,395$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.35 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1148…4211backed Yes | 23c | 1,209$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…009cbacked Yes | 12c | 980$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8016…0ff0backed Yes | 12c | 980$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fa…10e7backed Yes | 24c | 965.91$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 19c | 815$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.65 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1560…7ad5backed Yes | 37c | 708.32$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce11…0280backed Yes | 30c | 668.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 26c | 619.29$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.59 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 17c | 513.4$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b1…8887backed No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 24c | 468.32$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.4 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 64c | 341.6$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 62c | 309.94$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.73 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 19c | 260$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…7a88backed No | 79c | 254.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 221.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 23c | 200.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe8…0ec5backed No | 72c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…8908backed No | 60c | 199.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5d…725abacked No | 79c | 189.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 21c | 184$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…4cd6backed No | 78c | 171.59$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 70c | 153.89$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked No | 69c | 153.23$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 67c | 96.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 13c | 95.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…1b0bbacked Yes | 27c | 92.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1657…4068backed No | 77c | 90.35$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1099…903cbacked No | 77c | 77.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…b009backed Yes | 33c | 74.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…6b0bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 18c | 67.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…4545backed No | 70c | 56.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d34cbacked No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7e…d472backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…cf3fbacked No | 78c | 48.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…219dbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a5…3348backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +313.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 72c | 27.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…27debacked No | 79c | 22.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6943…7462backed No | 79c | 21.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…81a9backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d2…f9e9backed No | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?this page
- Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Dome" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.