Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc3107742f646084aecd5c3e2c69a1ffaec65367f9cd9d29f42f0b99e00a10d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4760…0a49backed No | 54c | 6,554$3,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,005.04 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d53…c3cbbacked Yes | 17c | 4,436$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 3,937$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c04…1685backed Yes | 14c | 3,322$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 14c | 3,128$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.1 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…5593backed Yes | 12c | 2,794$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…df72backed Yes | 14c | 2,250$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 19c | 2,165$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.91 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 9c | 1,770$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.54 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1a…52f0backed Yes | 61c | 1,643$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed Yes | 55c | 1,588$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.4 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10fa…10e7backed Yes | 18c | 1,349$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…3712backed Yes | 15c | 1,158$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 38c | 1,014$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.34 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacfa…53f4backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…81fbbacked No | 75c | 993.39$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.37 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb03a…969cbacked Yes | 61c | 976.93$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 15c | 888.64$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.39 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…cde2backed Yes | 24c | 858.99$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 56c | 750$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1c…1c5bbacked Yes | 12c | 745$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…d423backed Yes | 65c | 738.12$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6112…79c6backed Yes | 22c | 734$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.48 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 6c | 665.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdda1…cc83backed Yes | 10c | 663.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8e…4ad8backed Yes | 21c | 608.5$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 32c | 602.61$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.67 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9613…7528backed Yes | 19c | 525.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…84a1backed Yes | 10c | 506.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 22c | 499.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 41c | 495.02$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.81 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed Yes | 12c | 492.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -7.2wins | -0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 42c | 490$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 80c | 457.12$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.18 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 17c | 457$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…7a88backed No | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…b08abacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…1377backed Yes | 13c | 375$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…a8b1backed Yes | 26c | 340.17$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 36c | 339.63$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.97 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…f05dbacked Yes | 19c | 324.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 19c | 320$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 35c | 304.87$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 60c | 291.98$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.29 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 10c | 286.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…8d1cbacked Yes | 45c | 283.86$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7f…3ef4backed Yes | 18c | 277.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ae…0d93backed Yes | 15c | 274.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…5030backed No | 37c | 269.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2685…7336backed No | 38c | 262.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +162.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…b1c6backed Yes | 22c | 250.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 65c | 244.53$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.94 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 45c | 241.15$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.63 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f6…1795backed Yes | 18c | 224.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1d…172bbacked Yes | 23c | 218.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 36c | 216.55$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.8 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc516…5f28backed No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…a13cbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 12c | 189$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc1…93d9backed Yes | 56c | 183.17$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…ff6cbacked Yes | 15c | 181.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 80c | 179.98$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 30c | 169$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Yes | 60c | 167.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6fd8backed Yes | 11c | 158$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ce…b5d6backed Yes | 16c | 156$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 32c | 154.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…4470backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…5defbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf82…c406backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…34b4backed Yes | 64c | 138.58$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed No | 77c | 136.42$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 23c | 135.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…d7f2backed Yes | 24c | 133.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d34cbacked Yes | 59c | 126.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa169…a6a9backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 23c | 118$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7498…0f23backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b36…78d0backed Yes | 69c | 113.83$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9208…7b5fbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…5c54backed Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde70…81fdbacked No | 47c | 110$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa20e…b72abacked No | 34c | 105$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +285.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb473…b28abacked Yes | 62c | 103.63$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x248c…5834backed Yes | 25c | 103.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked No | 36c | 103.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 22c | 101.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?this page
- Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Dome" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
- Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" during his 4th of July remarks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.