TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb0e1…6fd8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
106
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: AI, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category AI at 57 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.6
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$10.6
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+215.5%+$68.3
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+46.6%+$9.22
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$57.63
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$16.91
Will Trump visit the Western Wall by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.41
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$8.2
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.6
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$13.92
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT+300%+$33
Harvard international students ban ended before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$39.46
Trump x Elon talk before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.81
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$61.3
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$323Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$322.54
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.7
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+114.3%+$102.96
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT+187.2%+$74.88
First round leader wins NYC Democratic primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.4
Will Trump remove majority of reciprocal tariffs before 90 day deadline? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.12
US-EU trade agreement by July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.52
Nothing Ever Happens: Julybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+155.4%+$22.28
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.5
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.2
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.76
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$39.42
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$20.7
Will Israel allow independent journalists into Gaza by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+58%+$49.95
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+126.4%+$28.86
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+99.2%+$70.08
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.4
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+32.2%+$14.6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+92.6%+$62.18
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+67%+$27.32
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will France airdrop aid into Gaza?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+32.5%+$9.8
Will Spain airdrop aid into Gaza?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+27.4%+$8.6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.07
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$8.25
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.08
Iran strike on Qatar today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$8.57
All 18 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1675%12 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+43.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$137.7
Will Apple release AirTag 2 this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.55
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+521.6%+$101.31
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$485Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+43.5%+$211
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+25.8%+$8.2
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+42.5%+$25.35
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$24.5
Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$28.08
Grokipedia released by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+34.2%+$10.2
OpenAI browser in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+94%+$21.8
Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT+127.6%+$72.87
Will iPhone 17 cost more than $800?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+37%+$17.55
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$19.8
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$140.37
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT+45.3%+$17.76
Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT+37.2%+$32.79
All 16 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-59.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.74
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.62
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.96
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$7.6
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$189.46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$66.4
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$13.6
Will Russia capture Siversk by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+49.3%+$6.6
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$32.7
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$7.5
More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.5
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+40.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-42.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+75.4%+$8.6
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+45.5%+$10.95
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveirabacked Topuria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$17.6
UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-Francebacked Kara-France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$64.62
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$21
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.