Middle East · resolved market
Will France airdrop aid into Gaza?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e792d27c011ba6fa4dc6065b9bc62d6da76c53d3dd42331a4c8e34f642bb954
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 10,862$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f9…d046backed No | 21c | 482.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24d6…58bcbacked No | 14c | 424.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed No | 25c | 398.47$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.11 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad9…410abacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 6c | 194$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked No | 10c | 177.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…faf0backed No | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 34c | 114.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked No | 20c | 111.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…92b2backed Yes | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes | 67c | 89.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 73c | 40.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6fd8backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will France airdrop aid into Gaza?this page
- Will Egypt airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will Germany airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will Israel airdrop aid into Gaza?No won
- Will Jordan airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will Saudi Arabia airdrop aid into Gaza?No won
- Will Spain airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will UAE airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will US airdrop aid into Gaza?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.