Middle East · resolved market
Will US airdrop aid into Gaza?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40861b12919563d7cf464a52c079f88a65c57089d9d13ee4b323fff2b6f5b0a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x253e…bf81backed Yes | 6c | 1,175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,009$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.35 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 777.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4da…5e37backed Yes | 3c | 523.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 5c | 405$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 31c | 400.2$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.25 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7a…c24bbacked Yes | 56c | 358.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 171.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x853b…eff5backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd87c…8c12backed No | 76c | 125$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes | 30c | 105$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 16c | 102.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…8b4fbacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed No | 79c | 87.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…12cfbacked Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…0e07backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US airdrop aid into Gaza?this page
- Will Egypt airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will France airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will Germany airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will Israel airdrop aid into Gaza?No won
- Will Jordan airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will Saudi Arabia airdrop aid into Gaza?No won
- Will Spain airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will UAE airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.