Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel airdrop aid into Gaza?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f34fcac3da47ad9ed0bac852efed1c9c2b45974f7b6ede37d99d6b49e6b1893
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…9418backed Yes | 5c | 1,798$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,252$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 964.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 3c | 869.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b4…bee4backed Yes | 2c | 624$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +187%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 27c | 550.77$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.01 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xface…0572backed No | 74c | 521.08$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 10c | 464.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 13c | 342.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…72dabacked No | 70c | 286.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.56 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 76c | 265.85$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.77 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb417…db8fbacked No | 63c | 262.66$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…5deabacked No | 65c | 200$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed No | 28c | 152.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.38 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce74…5a28backed No | 20c | 151.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 29c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 88 | 27.3%24 W · 64 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc5…2276backed No | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 74c | 146.65$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 35c | 142.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…f38bbacked No | 43c | 115.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked No | 11c | 109.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.88 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…92b2backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…9126backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 17c | 99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…620cbacked No | 22c | 91.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed7a…c24bbacked Yes | 54c | 91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0a…39b1backed No | 62c | 80.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +179.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 40c | 77.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 26c | 76.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 36c | 71.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8d…70febacked No | 63c | 66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 73c | 62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 57c | 61.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 36c | 51.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc424…ebc9backed No | 42c | 47.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd349…8b67backed Yes | 25c | 43.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…0e07backed No | 55c | 39.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed No | 71c | 34.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe097…d811backed Yes | 38c | 34.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Yes | 33c | 32.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3a…ae97backed No | 66c | 30.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb42…f3bbbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…faf0backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…336bbacked Yes | 34c | 29.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…7e76backed Yes | 34c | 29.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…d369backed No | 71c | 28.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa868…cf1cbacked Yes | 73c | 26.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 77c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…b19fbacked Yes | 75c | 20.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…bad9backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +820.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5b…8d94backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel airdrop aid into Gaza?this page
- Will Egypt airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will France airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will Germany airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will Jordan airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will Saudi Arabia airdrop aid into Gaza?No won
- Will Spain airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will UAE airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will US airdrop aid into Gaza?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.