Middle East · resolved market
Will Saudi Arabia airdrop aid into Gaza?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6bbe26fd234b7d93578e781f0a5d60fade908886ae723b5ed26e56295845673
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70f8…ab37backed No | 46c | 1,008$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 866.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 57c | 848.68$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.88 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffc1…9a12backed Yes | 8c | 589.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes | 27c | 400$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.19 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 53c | 320.87$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.16 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 59c | 264.54$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.28 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…12cfbacked Yes | 66c | 244.67$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 49c | 237.24$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.36 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 48c | 219.09$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…0e07backed Yes | 11c | 143.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 39c | 134.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…ffa3backed Yes | 34c | 130$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…6ba8backed Yes | 79c | 115$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 54c | 112$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…f38bbacked No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 55c | 97.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Yes | 27c | 89.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes | 40c | 74.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked No | 46c | 64.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 24c | 57.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 62c | 53.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31b…cceabacked No | 67c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…3b11backed No | 43c | 51.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd022…9e2cbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 43c | 41.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…5deabacked No | 39c | 36.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00df…7f26backed No | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc424…ebc9backed No | 58c | 34.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…d691backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x148c…d82bbacked Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…141cbacked Yes | 51c | 19.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1e13backed Yes | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Saudi Arabia airdrop aid into Gaza?this page
- Will Egypt airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will France airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will Germany airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will Israel airdrop aid into Gaza?No won
- Will Jordan airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will Spain airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will UAE airdrop aid into Gaza?Yes won
- Will US airdrop aid into Gaza?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.