TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by July 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,592
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$95,098

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,592 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0dfa…c0e3backed No0c7,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4526…7a45backed No41c5,223$2,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,127.353534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-41.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No4c4,703$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.679711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No0c3,955$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.01120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed Yes43c2,490$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,428.9912654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xa168…b2f2backed No7c2,218$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.13825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No7c2,196$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.875913.6%8 W · 51 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No5c1,665$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.576253.2%33 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes38c1,477$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.8237740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No61c1,300$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79310150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4426…2103backed No68c1,266$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.82728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-55.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab60…b46cbacked No36c1,241$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.12123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-60.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf02b…9e76backed Yes67c1,238$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8967…1e9bbacked No29c1,213$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.72528%7 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b7…30c2backed No9c1,186$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6560%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes28c1,100$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7902850%14 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed No11c998.88$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.886516.9%11 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8917…28f3backed No9c951.33$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed Yes71c853.68$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.018552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No5c664.91$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9826616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x23d1…ebe9backed No7c635$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa51b…26b1backed Yes57c530$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.67147.9%34 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa67e…ca0dbacked Yes39c461.33$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.99825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca7…d86fbacked No37c400$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1482433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-44.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed Yes46c371.5$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.57741.6%32 W · 45 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8383…d0dcbacked No8c364.48$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2970%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No13c357.13$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4167…8bf7backed Yes76c342$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8390…8f8bbacked Yes63c338$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.061040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95e6…1d2bbacked No4c303.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4418…b4dfbacked No66c298.22$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.53933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f6…1e17backed No8c297.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10cf…010dbacked No7c290$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d34cbacked No35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked No14c272$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.28139.5%32 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes71c266.12$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.44883.3%40 W · 8 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick70cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes33c253.59$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.761118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41c1…0694backed No12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-47%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No8c245.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4631719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb678…3913backed Yes70c237.35$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.362751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No14c212.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.84429.5%13 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x937e…db42backed No21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbf4…a1d3backed No10c193.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.41118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.22per pick41cpaid-73.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8010…0bd4backed Yes69c168.28$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacbf…be73backed Yes60c167.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.124139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x384f…0874backed No62c160$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.21323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No55c153.59$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.87233.3%24 W · 48 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked Yes70c142.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.081346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53d3…60eebacked Yes71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.853330.3%10 W · 23 L-7.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-45.1%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x84cb…3e65backed Yes38c137.04$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.9610100%10 W · 0 L+4.0wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+74.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9596…b1e4backed No52c130$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.630%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb857…0435backed No9c120$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8965…fda0backed Yes55c110$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+23.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb81a…eec2backed No18c108.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.61120%0 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4051…0a90backed No18c108.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-40%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1232…6984backed Yes49c102.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.92119%4 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes68c102.42$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.427321.9%16 W · 57 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3336…cb5fbacked Yes49c101.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.591050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x862e…a60cbacked No30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9998…e858backed No31c96.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.134461.4%27 W · 17 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+69.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x785b…c51dbacked No29c94.61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes71c90.97$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-64.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca2…134fbacked Yes35c90$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.51855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa009…ab48backed No57c89.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.742236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked Yes49c81.81$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.811637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-44.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fe6…7e61backed Yes50c80.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-53.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87d7…05b5backed No70c71.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdef4…0b7abacked Yes71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7c1…0193backed Yes70c57.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.144953.1%26 W · 23 L+12.8wins+0.26per pick27cpaid+106%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xce61…70b0backed Yes73c54.87$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.87850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.545843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f1f…94aabacked No27c49.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.452846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes68c48.28$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3728943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3454…519abacked Yes63c48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-68%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fd6…bd98backed Yes71c45.07$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.07475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9be7…31efbacked Yes66c43.68$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.68771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.222333.2%74 W · 149 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c87…5a32backed Yes55c36.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.11637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+44.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e34…b2eebacked Yes61c32.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e43…5fc9backed Yes65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.773100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106650%33 W · 33 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e9c…61febacked Yes69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.992665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+12.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0e1…6fd8backed Yes67c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.251855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…cb5abacked Yes48c22.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12b8…e956backed Yes70c21.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.432365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.