Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbccd149d5ac73fa12978c15bc36796241f2ce1eafa7b5b32d903b5d4dc8d278f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…7a45backed No | 41c | 5,223$2,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,127.35 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 4c | 4,703$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.67 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 3,955$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 43c | 2,490$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,428.99 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa168…b2f2backed No | 7c | 2,218$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 7c | 2,196$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.87 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 5c | 1,665$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.57 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 38c | 1,477$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.82 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 61c | 1,300$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4426…2103backed No | 68c | 1,266$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked No | 36c | 1,241$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.1 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02b…9e76backed Yes | 67c | 1,238$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked No | 29c | 1,213$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.7 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…30c2backed No | 9c | 1,186$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.65 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,100$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 11c | 998.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.88 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8917…28f3backed No | 9c | 951.33$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 71c | 853.68$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.01 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 5c | 664.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23d1…ebe9backed No | 7c | 635$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed Yes | 57c | 530$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.6 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67e…ca0dbacked Yes | 39c | 461.33$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…d86fbacked No | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 46c | 371.5$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.5 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…d0dcbacked No | 8c | 364.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 357.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…8bf7backed Yes | 76c | 342$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…8f8bbacked Yes | 63c | 338$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e6…1d2bbacked No | 4c | 303.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4418…b4dfbacked No | 66c | 298.22$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…1e17backed No | 8c | 297.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…010dbacked No | 7c | 290$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d34cbacked No | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked No | 14c | 272$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes | 71c | 266.12$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 48 | 83.3%40 W · 8 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 33c | 253.59$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c1…0694backed No | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 8c | 245.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…3913backed Yes | 70c | 237.35$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 14c | 212.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…db42backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf4…a1d3backed No | 10c | 193.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…0bd4backed Yes | 69c | 168.28$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…be73backed Yes | 60c | 167.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x384f…0874backed No | 62c | 160$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 153.59$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 70c | 142.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -7.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed Yes | 38c | 137.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +4.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…b1e4backed No | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb857…0435backed No | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8965…fda0backed Yes | 55c | 110$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81a…eec2backed No | 18c | 108.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4051…0a90backed No | 18c | 108.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…6984backed Yes | 49c | 102.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 68c | 102.42$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…cb5fbacked Yes | 49c | 101.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x862e…a60cbacked No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 31c | 96.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x785b…c51dbacked No | 29c | 94.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd822…3127backed Yes | 71c | 90.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed No | 57c | 89.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 49c | 81.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…7e61backed Yes | 50c | 80.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d7…05b5backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef4…0b7abacked Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c1…0193backed Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 27cpaid | +106%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…70b0backed Yes | 73c | 54.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked No | 27c | 49.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 68c | 48.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…519abacked Yes | 63c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd6…bd98backed Yes | 71c | 45.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be7…31efbacked Yes | 66c | 43.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c87…5a32backed Yes | 55c | 36.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…b2eebacked Yes | 61c | 32.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…5fc9backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…61febacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6fd8backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…cb5abacked Yes | 48c | 22.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b8…e956backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.