TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xab60…b46c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
101
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: UFC, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 51 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST4422.7%10 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Obama federally charged in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,073Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,072.73
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$357.51
Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$70
US forces in Venezuela by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Kash Patel out by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+314%+$376.83
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Elon forms new party within 1 day of the spending bill passing?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$48
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more between December and June? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will anyone be charged as a result of Epstein file release?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$460
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+76.4%+$213.78
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$40
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water by April 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$191.7
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$280
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$3,147Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,146.72
Was JFK assassination an inside job?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$507Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$507.4
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Trump uses a recess appointment for Cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST2123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-60.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$120
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,292Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+52.3%+$675.91
Israel strike on Iran on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+100%+$460.06
Israel strike on Iran on June 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$450.1
Israel strike on Iran on June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Israel strike on Iran on June 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+35.3%+$98.98
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$210.3
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$385Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$370.2
Sisi out as President of Egypt by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Türkiye recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Assad public appearance before 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$120
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$97.12
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$247
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+39.7%+$41.88
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$158.41
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$105
Will Israeli troops enter Beirut by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
All 21 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Adam Schiff federally charged by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$160
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$85
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+447.5%+$1,163.5
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$107.59
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.3
Will Trump visit Russia before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$240.83
Will Trump visit Russia in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$160
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$5,671Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,670.57
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$130
Will Ukraine join NATO in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$36
All 10 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 17, 2025, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-44.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2024, EST425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight rigged?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST-100%-$30
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$547Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$547.29
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lisa Cook federally charged in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.