World Politics · resolved market
Will Jan Topić win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae7e07679b826f51fcaaa6575fd1770d6c02148153f54267a3e7b598722b6a64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $727,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $327,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $727,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa068…6b89backed Yes | 0c | 71,258$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 66,336$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.64 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,856$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 15,763$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 12,012$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 110 | 0%0 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15af…c91abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea4…703bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 9,244$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e9…d175backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 5c | 1,933$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2e…b435backed Yes | 1c | 1,870$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…61c8backed Yes | 1c | 1,866$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…fd47backed Yes | 6c | 1,675$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…b06ebacked Yes | 9c | 998.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 7c | 779.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Yes | 7c | 479.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…4e3bbacked Yes | 5c | 283.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a0…436dbacked Yes | 7c | 182.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jan Topić win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? this page
- Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? Yes won
- Will Gustavo Jalkh win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election?No won
- Will Henry Cucalón win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election?No won
- Will Luisa González win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.