World Politics · resolved market
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x961ee2529ff3c3b27a9b7dc424c1d7046f52bdd5b4ae38bd74ae65f0838fabaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,360,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,435,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,360,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,365 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7567…4981backed No | 32c | 90,000$28,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,800 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9889…3e00backed Yes | 68c | 90,000$61,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,800 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…91d7backed No | 53c | 88,525$46,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,918.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…7706backed Yes | 47c | 88,525$41,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,918.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2f…8baebacked No | 62c | 68,801$42,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,490.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1515…4320backed Yes | 60c | 61,688$37,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,624.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 38c | 37,450$14,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,096.5 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 25c | 23,875$5,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,916.51 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 57c | 22,663$12,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,683.6 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782d…df02backed Yes | 40c | 19,673$7,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,759.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc2…0b79backed Yes | 38c | 17,170$6,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,683.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c7…2134backed Yes | 42c | 17,128$7,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,981.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 59c | 16,384$9,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,588.1 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked No | 0c | 13,867$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 79c | 10,618$8,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,220.75 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c49…fbebbacked Yes | 41c | 10,321$4,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,123.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 41c | 8,952$3,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,295.47 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 47c | 8,635$4,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,576.66 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed No | 10c | 7,232$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.93 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…1925backed Yes | 68c | 6,895$4,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 56c | 6,790$3,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,784.29 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 42c | 6,563$2,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,780.2 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 53c | 6,351$3,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,008.9 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…a348backed No | 60c | 6,004$3,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,588.32 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d5…4739backed Yes | 41c | 5,825$2,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,417.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35dc…7861backed Yes | 43c | 5,739$2,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,248.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7e…2273backed Yes | 49c | 5,728$2,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,939.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61de…f2ebbacked Yes | 42c | 5,633$2,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,277.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d65…16d4backed Yes | 68c | 5,405$3,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,736.96 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…19d4backed Yes | 38c | 5,348$2,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,341.31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7dd…3696backed Yes | 44c | 5,293$2,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,949.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…de55backed Yes | 66c | 4,827$3,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645.84 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 4,651$3,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.09 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed No | 16c | 4,477$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.62 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed Yes | 64c | 4,392$2,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 49c | 4,226$2,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,152 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 41c | 4,190$1,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,483.7 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 44c | 4,008$1,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,246.25 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 49c | 4,000$1,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,060 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…0797backed Yes | 40c | 3,959$1,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,367.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 51c | 3,863$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,908.13 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed No | 62c | 3,600$2,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,241.89 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…6108backed Yes | 48c | 3,341$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 30c | 3,255$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.24 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed No | 26c | 3,246$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.51 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…5207backed Yes | 43c | 3,035$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5626…b61ebacked Yes | 36c | 2,904$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,854.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +176.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…2783backed Yes | 38c | 2,888$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,787.54 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b19…9f9cbacked Yes | 37c | 2,727$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 5c | 2,655$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.18 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 45c | 2,637$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,462.28 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc356…1c77backed Yes | 35c | 2,587$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,687.6 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc06…bcd6backed Yes | 41c | 2,572$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…d154backed Yes | 35c | 2,500$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 44c | 2,460$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.67 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…092cbacked Yes | 54c | 2,331$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…072bbacked Yes | 44c | 2,293$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c7…472abacked Yes | 45c | 2,254$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x525b…b33fbacked Yes | 54c | 2,241$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa789…0a6ebacked Yes | 69c | 2,201$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 52c | 2,151$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.02 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 35c | 2,130$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf8…dfb0backed Yes | 35c | 2,130$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 24c | 2,125$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.54 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 38c | 2,091$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.13 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed No | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bf…b84fbacked No | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.99 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 45c | 1,999$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.62 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae3…592ebacked No | 50c | 1,992$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 47c | 1,981$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.63 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 52c | 1,961$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.05 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 44c | 1,913$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.16 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf54e…0950backed Yes | 50c | 1,911$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +143.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…d01bbacked Yes | 78c | 1,853$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 29c | 1,806$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.22 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…0868backed Yes | 63c | 1,805$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.19 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…d5eabacked Yes | 62c | 1,798$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad11…a223backed Yes | 63c | 1,779$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.08 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 74c | 1,709$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.06 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ca…d65ebacked Yes | 64c | 1,560$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 43c | 1,503$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.89 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 24c | 1,455$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.05 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x112f…1856backed Yes | 65c | 1,448$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 34c | 1,432$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.35 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 35c | 1,429$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.57 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2c…097cbacked Yes | 49c | 1,400$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…c4c4backed Yes | 38c | 1,363$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb54…6e4bbacked Yes | 78c | 1,338$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Yes | 75c | 1,337$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c78…8226backed Yes | 40c | 1,309$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +168%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…1deebacked Yes | 78c | 1,287$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.56 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed No | 31c | 1,271$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.69 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1795…8e9fbacked Yes | 62c | 1,237$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd5…63b8backed Yes | 41c | 1,228$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 10c | 1,209$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.85 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x76b7…454ebacked Yes | 44c | 1,144$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1195…fff1backed Yes | 48c | 1,127$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 74c | 1,127$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.83 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 79c | 1,111$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.31 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? this page
- Will Gustavo Jalkh win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election?No won
- Will Henry Cucalón win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election?No won
- Will Jan Topić win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? No won
- Will Luisa González win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.