TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Luisa González win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,274,031
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,153,852

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,274,031 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 562 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes6c100,200$6,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,104.18263.8%1 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9889…3e00backed No65c94,000$61,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,900560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0979…9402backed Yes35c94,000$32,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,900616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf0c…1146backed Yes43c89,867$38,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,643.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0bf…6f28backed No57c89,857$51,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,638.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1515…4320backed Yes43c49,645$21,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,175.24540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcd6…e696backed Yes54c39,235$21,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,186.920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf2d…d280backed No46c39,235$18,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,186.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd2f…8baebacked Yes63c36,379$22,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,753.64771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes59c29,426$17,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,307.43455.9%19 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick66cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes31c28,737$8,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,770.228921.3%19 W · 70 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+105.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa628…1943backed Yes1c19,566$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes47c18,251$8,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,535.9348224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No42c17,757$7,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,298.645664.3%36 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2dc7…b6e4backed Yes36c15,569$5,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,551.17540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8403…79a1backed Yes56c15,333$8,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,641.44425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes38c13,170$4,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,944.756439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd16…9e21backed Yes7c10,311$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes1c9,923$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91449.1%4 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes33c8,432$2,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,752.097740.3%31 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9734…9f32backed Yes43c8,375$3,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,634.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes11c6,493$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.783737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6761…1925backed No64c6,415$4,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,306.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f29…dd03backed Yes44c6,150$2,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,702.236434.4%22 W · 42 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes60c5,202$3,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,140.493614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes53c4,967$2,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,621.525230.8%16 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes9c4,719$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.485648.2%27 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fe2…87c5backed Yes47c4,610$2,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,170.46862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes56c4,452$2,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,482.314055%22 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes53c4,429$2,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,347.936622.7%15 W · 51 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes45c4,067$1,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,823.662532%8 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e1f…2315backed Yes12c4,008$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6510…14babacked Yes52c3,903$2,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,017.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No43c3,584$1,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,031.2412040%48 W · 72 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes56c3,564$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003033.3%10 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+62.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dbd…ed66backed Yes62c3,550$2,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,194.312630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-39.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1bc8…19d4backed Yes28c3,413$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.55911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-70.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e02…5553backed Yes22c3,241$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.523447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d65…16d4backed Yes65c3,082$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7c8…a348backed Yes58c3,074$1,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,794.874434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc623…9afdbacked Yes61c3,000$1,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,823.171435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick61cpaid-51%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes51c3,000$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.0410928.4%31 W · 78 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked No57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2902619.2%5 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes35c2,990$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.199750.5%49 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes51c2,873$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,475.748440.5%34 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc060…8956backed Yes63c2,828$1,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,781.581735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes32c2,732$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.849631.3%30 W · 66 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb950…4dd4backed Yes30c2,561$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.797533.3%25 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0db7…c901backed Yes61c2,559$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.34757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df7…d154backed Yes65c2,500$1,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,623.521241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88e0…58fbbacked Yes42c2,369$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes27c2,328$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.9414330.8%44 W · 99 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+104.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfec7…1594backed Yes9c2,200$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023928.2%11 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes33c2,166$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.623828.9%11 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-26.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8de7…fe8fbacked Yes17c2,061$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No35c2,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3007650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f24…f47bbacked Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c37…92a4backed Yes61c1,954$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.955238.5%20 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes9c1,929$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.83447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No61c1,806$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.53030%9 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes49c1,792$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.834427.3%12 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes55c1,731$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.328138.3%31 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc3f…3440backed Yes10c1,706$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed No38c1,705$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,057.381855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+27.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes52c1,700$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88424736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes57c1,614$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.4615230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe658…072bbacked Yes62c1,606$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92d1…4326backed Yes25c1,606$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…3f55backed Yes13c1,517$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes24c1,500$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36513525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b98…ee05backed Yes25c1,452$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No49c1,437$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.7719237.5%72 W · 120 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes41c1,409$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.527047.1%33 W · 37 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+46.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbefe…0fd9backed Yes13c1,406$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.5340%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes36c1,389$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.137932.9%26 W · 53 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-15.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf2c…097cbacked Yes49c1,383$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.61450%7 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+88.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes37c1,359$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.5943243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6f5…a2c8backed Yes60c1,321$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd1…7200backed Yes22c1,319$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7efc…6156backed Yes8c1,299$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes42c1,270$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.499721.6%21 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd753…3c08backed Yes20c1,265$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes42c1,258$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.7127828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c7…b103backed Yes65c1,258$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2590…8dffbacked No35c1,258$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x969b…7f79backed Yes39c1,255$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4851376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+33.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6558…86fbbacked No43c1,252$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+54.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45d0…de55backed No37c1,180$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.711662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes44c1,125$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.314650%23 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ef…c75bbacked Yes59c1,105$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x577c…7dd1backed Yes27c1,100$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.721136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-48.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6df…baa2backed Yes56c1,062$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5904942.9%21 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xad2d…0a5bbacked Yes24c1,043$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes17c1,039$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.8710331.1%32 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ee…5beebacked Yes19c1,031$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed No17c1,000$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8308123.5%19 W · 62 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12ac…7f5abacked Yes52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1096…321cbacked No54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4602100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+106.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4ce…a356backed Yes66c1,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92d9…4c5ebacked Yes49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4901741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-44.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.