Ukraine · resolved market
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5ac4cdcfff44ddfb0d332d33575f766414465786fb7d4350782db40d5e9da11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,491,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,654,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,491,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 15,470 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 70c | 1,587,463$1,106,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480,846.11 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0a…5e4dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000,561$5,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,892.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 69c | 973,825$670,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302,894.66 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 76c | 882,002$672,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209,343.85 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 72c | 804,912$578,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226,866.11 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd159…0603backed Yes | 0c | 703,526$2,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,945.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 79c | 665,292$528,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137,261.92 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 76c | 626,171$477,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148,844.55 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed72…e319backed Yes | 27c | 604,707$161,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161,541.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…4d6cbacked No | 70c | 560,253$389,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170,267.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeadf…5cc2backed Yes | 33c | 546,254$182,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182,174.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 65c | 545,444$352,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192,461.94 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68b3…83f0backed Yes | 1c | 543,702$3,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,125 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3755…2316backed Yes | 33c | 527,914$175,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175,169.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 74c | 506,085$376,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129,379.53 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 11c | 491,082$54,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,317.31 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 76c | 443,766$335,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108,480.83 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…2427backed Yes | 45c | 396,768$179,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179,693.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af6…25afbacked Yes | 20c | 396,194$78,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78,837.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409e…6458backed Yes | 22c | 378,784$83,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83,388.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…e476backed Yes | 33c | 341,731$114,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114,402 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 6c | 324,499$18,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,122.98 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f6…8085backed Yes | 19c | 315,900$60,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,325.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…2e31backed No | 68c | 286,453$194,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91,583.56 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…8f97backed No | 74c | 276,143$203,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72,435.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 27c | 273,214$74,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74,961.17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 33c | 272,670$90,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90,721.44 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f94…a4d9backed Yes | 32c | 268,090$87,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87,115.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 72c | 262,087$187,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,235.15 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.33per pick | 44cpaid | +142.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 71c | 260,282$185,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,810.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…c0e2backed Yes | 3c | 259,014$8,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,768.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 77c | 254,228$196,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,520.35 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…7ebbbacked Yes | 33c | 253,478$82,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82,812.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffa…b3c4backed Yes | 3c | 231,819$6,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,672.94 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 67c | 220,697$147,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73,412.53 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked No | 65c | 213,377$138,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75,069.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…714dbacked Yes | 41c | 211,341$86,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86,458.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7992…48bfbacked Yes | 23c | 210,199$49,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,387.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…fd25backed No | 68c | 206,597$139,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66,713.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…ba82backed Yes | 15c | 201,360$30,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,163.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a1…7c68backed Yes | 23c | 201,306$45,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,482.33 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 69c | 200,806$137,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63,202.31 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…6475backed Yes | 33c | 199,180$64,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64,834.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 75c | 193,389$145,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,471.56 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2f…8baebacked Yes | 26c | 192,150$49,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,815.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…d13cbacked No | 71c | 180,085$127,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,358.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed No | 79c | 179,502$142,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,331.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 40c | 178,674$70,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70,890.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 67c | 176,016$117,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,262.38 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…b48abacked Yes | 37c | 174,631$64,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64,598.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…e1c9backed Yes | 40c | 167,911$67,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67,672.34 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6378…a7f7backed Yes | 23c | 164,799$38,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,384.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x406e…ad53backed Yes | 46c | 153,201$70,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70,901.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7328backed Yes | 28c | 151,106$42,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,109.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 76c | 151,024$114,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,516.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc5…a867backed Yes | 37c | 148,293$54,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,680.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d22…f0cfbacked No | 79c | 147,502$116,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,738.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 19c | 145,484$28,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,071.63 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 28c | 142,848$39,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,746.76 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 33c | 139,875$46,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,355.64 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 18c | 139,135$25,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,610.2 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…cd08backed Yes | 31c | 137,547$43,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,159.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 32c | 134,431$43,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,073.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75c…2159backed No | 61c | 133,833$81,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,871.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c9…6ef7backed Yes | 39c | 132,799$51,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,417.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf28…7f92backed Yes | 41c | 129,939$53,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,231.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 62c | 128,626$79,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,510.57 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae9…8148backed Yes | 17c | 128,324$21,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,673.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…5fb5backed Yes | 3c | 126,952$3,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,932.57 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27aa…b07ebacked Yes | 41c | 122,853$49,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,883.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 63c | 121,093$76,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,043.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 74c | 119,446$87,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,486.2 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 27c | 118,329$31,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,815.38 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 74c | 117,567$87,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,011.54 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed Yes | 44c | 114,816$50,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,921.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…f24ebacked Yes | 0c | 113,960$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…c8afbacked Yes | 44c | 109,569$47,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,819.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65e…1502backed No | 65c | 109,331$71,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,766.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…f347backed Yes | 36c | 107,964$39,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,077.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 70c | 107,431$74,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,503.05 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7a7dbacked No | 74c | 105,982$78,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,053.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf84c…9b1cbacked Yes | 1c | 105,057$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.49 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 73c | 105,000$76,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,441.94 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 75c | 103,958$77,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,455.33 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…53dcbacked Yes | 1c | 100,743$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes | 33c | 100,005$32,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,788.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed Yes | 24c | 100,000$23,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,998.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…09dbbacked Yes | 1c | 100,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79de…324dbacked Yes | 28c | 98,990$27,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,717.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9f…35ccbacked No | 72c | 98,990$71,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,717.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 98,664$36,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,505.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…1b36backed No | 67c | 97,511$65,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,953.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x159d…a38ebacked Yes | 31c | 96,806$30,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,010 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b74…2891backed No | 67c | 96,393$64,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,723.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…0371backed Yes | 1c | 95,357$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…91e7backed Yes | 2c | 87,627$2,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,177 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 38c | 87,205$33,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,451.08 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…e2fdbacked Yes | 20c | 86,426$17,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,030 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…11dfbacked Yes | 50c | 86,068$43,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…12f6backed No | 65c | 85,759$55,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,015.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.