Us Politics · resolved market
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43546e87f8c7bd4171c1fef428e354319b16a88770612e39c6f1073707b0b9a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $334,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $301,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $334,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 268 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32cf…b8d3backed Yes | 22c | 29,347$6,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,325.81 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +124%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 30c | 18,966$5,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,732.1 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 60c | 14,796$8,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,963.67 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 22c | 13,571$3,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,544.89 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 8c | 7,412$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.7 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 30c | 6,922$2,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,052.09 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…4a91backed No | 70c | 6,604$4,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 26c | 5,027$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.65 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 12c | 4,999$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.54 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 15c | 4,990$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.07 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed No | 78c | 4,474$3,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.17 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked No | 69c | 4,064$2,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 10c | 3,810$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.86 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 79c | 3,316$2,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.59 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 17c | 2,967$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,456.04 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…4edbbacked Yes | 32c | 2,818$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ef1backed Yes | 63c | 2,759$1,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,751.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked No | 26c | 2,670$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,977.5 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…3a4cbacked Yes | 76c | 2,605$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 2,532$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.55 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…0626backed Yes | 24c | 2,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 24cpaid | +178.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…0aa5backed No | 13c | 2,500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,180 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +78%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…5a8fbacked No | 77c | 2,384$1,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.84 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 2,307$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed No | 62c | 2,163$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.87 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 70c | 2,016$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.31 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 28c | 1,985$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.22 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca3e…f2fabacked Yes | 59c | 1,703$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 2c | 1,639$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7824…ae0fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,607$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed No | 23c | 1,596$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.89 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…06e3backed Yes | 76c | 1,535$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc803…4cefbacked No | 12c | 1,412$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 20c | 1,410$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.35 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 80c | 1,368$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.53 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf980…2fa4backed Yes | 28c | 1,330$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…dd1ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,308$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.08 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fc…fd7ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,307$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…bb4fbacked Yes | 77c | 1,297$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…695bbacked No | 75c | 1,275$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed No | 80c | 1,254$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.75 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae1f…68d9backed Yes | 14c | 1,176$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f6…77b4backed Yes | 9c | 1,147$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes | 75c | 1,146$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 25c | 1,145$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.35 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…45cfbacked Yes | 78c | 1,107$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.38 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 11c | 1,100$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 35c | 1,084$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.33 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac36…aff1backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 80c | 1,000$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2768…af5ebacked Yes | 33c | 946$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 23c | 940.54$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.75 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7990…c870backed Yes | 80c | 931.66$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed No | 57c | 919.32$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.03 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7486…fa8cbacked Yes | 77c | 897.9$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb4…7124backed Yes | 11c | 870.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed No | 20c | 870.54$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.59 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed Yes | 24c | 832$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +8.3wins | +0.32per pick | 14cpaid | +308.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes | 24c | 832$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +108%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed Yes | 17c | 826.76$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes | 20c | 825.04$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…eb69backed Yes | 12c | 813.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 10c | 810.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.02 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 23c | 806.71$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.48 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…a644backed Yes | 80c | 800$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 76c | 799.99$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed Yes | 79c | 748.69$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.61 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…cf5abacked Yes | 12c | 737.92$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd369…b5e2backed Yes | 31c | 735.77$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…41c5backed Yes | 2c | 715.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…0829backed Yes | 24c | 715.4$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…ce08backed Yes | 14c | 710$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 77c | 706.47$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.79 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48c1…d2cdbacked Yes | 19c | 700$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 697.29$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.22 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7019…61ddbacked Yes | 15c | 683.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 76c | 672.3$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.95 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 15c | 666$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 80c | 664.6$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.92 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbae8…ed0cbacked Yes | 79c | 636.27$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.05 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…dc82backed Yes | 73c | 599.99$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88d…2d3fbacked Yes | 75c | 585$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 13c | 576.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e6…c94cbacked No | 80c | 570.91$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…31d8backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d7…c2bfbacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2545…4a0ebacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…7677backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54c9…503cbacked Yes | 16c | 499.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 10c | 495.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.6 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…fbbcbacked Yes | 12c | 486.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e7…a536backed No | 22c | 458.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.76 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…bdcdbacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…9eadbacked Yes | 24c | 419.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf445…0828backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +275%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa605…9995backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +131.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? this page
- Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Jamie Dimon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Sarah Palin be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Steve Bannon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.