TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Sarah Palin be a member of the Trump administration?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,574
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,891

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,574 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes5c2,676$136 inLost-$135.911940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes7c1,110$81 inLost-$80.81007%7 W · 93 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf1…d523backed Yes6c900.17$53 inLost-$52.511020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-44%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d57…bfc5backed Yes4c774.73$31 inLost-$30.992240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Yes2c620.99$12 inLost-$11.73348.8%3 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+65%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda08…72d4backed Yes14c491.83$69 inLost-$68.861118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1013…45cfbacked Yes7c390$27 inLost-$27.32035%7 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes8c294.48$24 inLost-$23.8517713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c244.28$18 inLost-$18.2396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed No76c50$38 inWon+$128843.2%38 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.