Us Politics · resolved market
Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x539862ce6fb8a9f2761167dc95db07cc54f4b5af8118a0401fcd9095a43c4a42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $295,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $300,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $295,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 0c | 70,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 3c | 22,734$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.83 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 1c | 15,280$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked No | 9c | 8,707$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.91 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed No | 14c | 7,357$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.51 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…f756backed No | 12c | 6,541$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e8…d208backed No | 4c | 5,140$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed No | 4c | 4,963$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.48 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 4,437$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 5c | 4,124$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.97 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee99…d391backed No | 2c | 3,909$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25d7…c2bfbacked No | 7c | 3,258$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 4c | 2,849$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.14 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked No | 11c | 2,650$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.58 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 10c | 1,760$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.71 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 12c | 1,739$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.26 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed No | 2c | 1,690$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…9d8ebacked No | 8c | 1,667$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.39 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked No | 15c | 1,284$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…02aebacked No | 22c | 1,264$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.17 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…63f8backed No | 3c | 1,200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1a…7badbacked No | 8c | 1,005$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 8c | 1,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 11c | 1,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed No | 14c | 855.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 2c | 816.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…334abacked No | 12c | 810$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed No | 17c | 800$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc63d…d3d9backed No | 13c | 700$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 11c | 687.09$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…e384backed No | 11c | 550$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 8c | 522$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf417…d277backed No | 30c | 521.47$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 10c | 520.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcd…93d3backed No | 21c | 517.5$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5da…c494backed No | 13c | 505$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 502.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…2418backed No | 10c | 500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1004…2749backed No | 17c | 499.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 16c | 465.87$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ade…7624backed No | 7c | 460$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…f9bbbacked No | 11c | 447$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 17c | 417.34$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e4…8f34backed No | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f5…056fbacked No | 3c | 395.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 3c | 382.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…dce4backed No | 3c | 357.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…dcadbacked No | 18c | 273.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…45cfbacked Yes | 59c | 256.49$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.16 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 12c | 254.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70cb…53d1backed No | 8c | 251.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39d…af66backed No | 15c | 210$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…58d6backed No | 15c | 205.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa97…b530backed No | 15c | 204.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…f844backed No | 11c | 202.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed No | 18c | 192$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…4cdcbacked No | 14c | 183.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd882…04a5backed No | 14c | 161.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +320.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 11c | 161.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 9c | 131.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a87…d3c4backed Yes | 78c | 115.68$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked No | 18c | 114.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3f…73c2backed Yes | 78c | 107.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a0…436dbacked No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…c725backed No | 17c | 87.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa176…7bfdbacked No | 13c | 82.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bd19backed No | 18c | 65.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde18…54a0backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…a363backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbda…fdbbbacked Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes | 77c | 28.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 61c | 27.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc545…dc80backed Yes | 75c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…e0efbacked Yes | 75c | 15.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration?this page
- Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Jamie Dimon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Sarah Palin be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Steve Bannon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.