Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b88e6fb500fea93b3b93f633398b924391017d3b949c973c0f0baa490040b1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $201,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $205,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0bf…6f28backed Yes | 3c | 73,181$2,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,341.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 9c | 2,749$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.78 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 15c | 2,530$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.77 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,540$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.17 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 11c | 1,535$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.4 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…f1a4backed Yes | 8c | 1,400$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…45cfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,360$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.9 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,307$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.93 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 18c | 1,180$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.06 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3979…f49ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eca…357ebacked Yes | 15c | 971.93$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61b…7cb2backed Yes | 13c | 949.98$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda5b…19d9backed Yes | 22c | 837.61$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed No | 78c | 557.53$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.01 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c32…cdcebacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 8c | 421$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 13c | 366$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…c8b0backed Yes | 6c | 350$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…9eadbacked Yes | 8c | 315$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…5db9backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 11c | 259.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…a644backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…22f7backed Yes | 12c | 232.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a97…dc6cbacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ba…d0c6backed Yes | 13c | 208.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…7ad9backed Yes | 20c | 202.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes | 7c | 201$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…cfb7backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a3…cc69backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200a…d498backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f1…2fdabacked Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…d41fbacked Yes | 15c | 171.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7683…d93fbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf01b…73f4backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd882…04a5backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +320.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb5…b365backed No | 79c | 128.61$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…863dbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a4…7bf2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3756…8ad6backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec4…bf73backed Yes | 23c | 95.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 89.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 20c | 89.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8115…1038backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63cd…b8c8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc039…e2e0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…9ef1backed No | 80c | 44.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa7…4225backed No | 72c | 38.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +86%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…4899backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a4…db98backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa221…4802backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? this page
- Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Jamie Dimon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Sarah Palin be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Steve Bannon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.