Us Politics · resolved market
Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb92233dc0351a99a0ffac27c89cded568de15e92ea8ae56d96c1b3477a1ce399
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe767…f8a9backed Yes | 21c | 6,962$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 10c | 3,445$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.15 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 6c | 3,375$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.87 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 15c | 2,980$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.2 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 4c | 2,452$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b3…848ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,397$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c0b5backed Yes | 13c | 2,254$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…a644backed No | 79c | 2,200$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…a363backed Yes | 13c | 2,073$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.59 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 16c | 2,019$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.78 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579e…eda1backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,999$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.87 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…45cfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,480$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.6 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes | 9c | 1,432$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…00b3backed Yes | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes | 4c | 1,199$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 1,198$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.45 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e5…316dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,148$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,136$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.13 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…3290backed Yes | 6c | 1,020$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d7…c2bfbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c1…1b90backed Yes | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…9475backed Yes | 12c | 967.52$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 12c | 945.98$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…4ab8backed Yes | 10c | 851$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…779dbacked Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2fa6backed Yes | 16c | 760$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 11c | 733.72$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.53 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…3df8backed Yes | 34c | 728$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 13c | 640.98$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…7657backed Yes | 78c | 637.88$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf61b…7cb2backed Yes | 14c | 619.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1498…1caebacked Yes | 11c | 560.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49c…415ebacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…ae8bbacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 65c | 555$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.25 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd882…04a5backed Yes | 10c | 547.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +320.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed No | 21c | 501.09$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 13c | 500$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes | 11c | 500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c7…1db8backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…7ad9backed Yes | 9c | 449.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…3b24backed Yes | 12c | 424.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc828…8304backed Yes | 9c | 411.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7143…bb9cbacked Yes | 14c | 353.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1b…d2b1backed No | 73c | 349.01$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 3c | 345.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea4…1ea0backed Yes | 12c | 336.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x692f…05d3backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88d…2d3fbacked Yes | 50c | 332.1$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d03…a9b0backed Yes | 5c | 305.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…a76ebacked Yes | 13c | 302$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8659…8021backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…ace9backed Yes | 17c | 292$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed Yes | 14c | 286.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156c…ad2abacked Yes | 4c | 282.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 50c | 278$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.1 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…117cbacked Yes | 9c | 273.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…475abacked Yes | 6c | 253.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 13c | 250$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…133fbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +187.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 12c | 222$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…9eadbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd60…a6c1backed Yes | 14c | 199.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8d…1df6backed Yes | 11c | 186.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…2c64backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8576…f66bbacked Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 13c | 171.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x393f…ed3dbacked Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2072…1201backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbb…2206backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…22f7backed Yes | 13c | 158.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c6…6414backed Yes | 10c | 152$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 26c | 149.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 11c | 141.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 12c | 135$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dce…3cc1backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdc…df7abacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed No | 24c | 120$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…da3abacked Yes | 14c | 115.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…76febacked Yes | 11c | 111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 11c | 105.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…d41fbacked Yes | 15c | 101.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa68…94a7backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…1236backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0ef5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…0547backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 32c | 82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…2747backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…135cbacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5982…fa1ebacked No | 70c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…ed09backed No | 55c | 54.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? this page
- Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Jamie Dimon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Sarah Palin be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Steve Bannon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.