Us Politics · resolved market
Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03569d30dd8aa186c1870aa25cea053156045b03c6c7c39a8595abeaa12e2b24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $252,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $247,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed Yes | 44c | 19,806$8,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,082.49 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47a7…da75backed No | 72c | 16,989$12,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,169.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked No | 66c | 12,278$8,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,045.8 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 36c | 8,009$2,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,087.23 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 46c | 7,813$3,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,202.07 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 79c | 7,760$6,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,141.46 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…cd86backed Yes | 23c | 7,590$1,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,808.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a5…5ac2backed Yes | 25c | 6,895$1,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,183.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 5,326$3,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,920.81 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02f2…2cd0backed Yes | 30c | 4,667$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,266.88 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 36c | 4,567$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,900.67 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 46c | 4,538$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.77 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 64c | 4,209$2,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,695.65 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 29c | 4,144$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,946.48 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…7ef2backed Yes | 25c | 3,958$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,968.73 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 37c | 3,902$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,475.36 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0e…434ebacked No | 76c | 3,728$2,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,830.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 75c | 3,673$2,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,761.33 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 27c | 3,610$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,651.65 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 60c | 3,404$2,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,051.49 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 38c | 3,087$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,918.38 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 23c | 2,883$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,213.13 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 18c | 2,513$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,065.68 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…3dcabacked Yes | 15c | 2,500$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,132.87 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44ed…c6d1backed Yes | 13c | 2,256$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,962.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 30c | 2,194$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.94 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes | 51c | 2,043$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.63 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed No | 76c | 1,839$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.3 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…45cfbacked Yes | 26c | 1,625$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.75 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 75c | 1,510$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.1 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 75c | 1,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…5a9bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,466$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 73c | 1,394$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.98 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 26c | 1,384$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.79 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 79c | 1,369$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.73 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 39c | 1,321$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.01 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 13c | 1,224$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.88 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 34c | 1,200$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 35c | 1,198$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.9 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed Yes | 10c | 1,175$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.47 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed No | 80c | 1,143$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.34 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b2…aa53backed No | 71c | 1,130$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed No | 78c | 1,057$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.67 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed No | 77c | 1,056$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.74 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98d…01babacked Yes | 34c | 1,039$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +198.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4569…c0d3backed Yes | 19c | 951.44$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 59c | 939.79$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 33c | 907.38$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.04 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 60c | 833.72$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.72 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Yes | 71c | 783.25$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x650d…c383backed Yes | 29c | 742.47$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.36 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 19c | 742.27$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.71 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 21c | 726.34$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.1 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…d01bbacked Yes | 60c | 724.63$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 37c | 701.8$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.16 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…770fbacked Yes | 78c | 691.64$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…fa38backed Yes | 36c | 687$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.18 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ef…4d88backed Yes | 25c | 680$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +634.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 26c | 651$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.61 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 12c | 620$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.8 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed No | 56c | 615.58$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.88 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ba…b3f9backed No | 74c | 540$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.28 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…2aa7backed Yes | 33c | 535.88$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.45 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff2…27adbacked Yes | 15c | 527.47$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfe…5087backed Yes | 30c | 526.51$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.51 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…12a3backed Yes | 27c | 510.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.99 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a3…cc69backed No | 68c | 500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49db…2019backed Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 33c | 464$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.89 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe77e…bb3dbacked Yes | 22c | 458.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.25 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…bbfbbacked Yes | 18c | 445.87$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked No | 78c | 438.84$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.38 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 32c | 428.59$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.51 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…5998backed No | 49c | 421$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.9 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed Yes | 11c | 420$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 400.69$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.99 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f7…77c3backed Yes | 48c | 400$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…1ebabacked No | 70c | 399.99$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.99 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 53c | 361.31$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.7 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 42c | 327.13$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.13 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 27c | 312.3$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.88 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 77c | 310.68$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.54 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…a6a2backed Yes | 18c | 306.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.27 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…f0b6backed Yes | 52c | 302.3$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.1 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 27c | 300.86$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.3 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 25c | 300.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.12 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…3133backed Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 29c | 269.34$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.33 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…bd62backed No | 79c | 254.28$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…6096backed Yes | 20c | 249.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2998…b425backed Yes | 19c | 246.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.97 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed No | 79c | 245$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 23c | 244.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 33c | 240$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.8 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…7ee3backed Yes | 37c | 237$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes | 47c | 233.64$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.64 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 73c | 220$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.8 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacea…35bebacked Yes | 24c | 212.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.58per pick | 17cpaid | +329.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 55c | 211.08$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.48 | 83 | 77.1%64 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?this page
- Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Jamie Dimon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Sarah Palin be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Steve Bannon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.