Us Politics · resolved market
Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x327a399e6e26a1d0f274aba63a62f2a6f97c8a099eaf07dcdf69d98d48e13ec5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $293,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $521,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 6c | 3,305$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,910$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.73 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 7c | 1,318$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,211$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0939…8137backed Yes | 8c | 1,137$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 4c | 1,111$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…9eadbacked Yes | 5c | 1,015$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 3c | 884.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 824.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 725.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…f14cbacked Yes | 9c | 715.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes | 5c | 666$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…a363backed Yes | 7c | 447.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f3…76dcbacked Yes | 5c | 414.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 6c | 378.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ad…968fbacked Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 347.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x137c…b9ffbacked Yes | 5c | 335.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc099…2ea5backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x712d…3d9abacked Yes | 6c | 309.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…7ad9backed Yes | 5c | 284.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…3129backed Yes | 4c | 280$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59c…115bbacked Yes | 6c | 210.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda5b…19d9backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64d…58d2backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8d…1df6backed Yes | 7c | 145.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8115…1038backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…d41fbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…b6b5backed Yes | 14c | 110.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration?this page
- Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Jamie Dimon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Sarah Palin be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Steve Bannon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.