Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x400d3f9e359ef6fa1e51a63ae8d45a1b3797b90cd2cbdb1c0aa7a3f75bd652a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,850,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,834,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,850,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,032 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 71c | 145,450$103,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,218.33 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cec…dc3ebacked No | 0c | 65,747$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed No | 60c | 49,408$29,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,577.8 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 74c | 40,197$29,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,604.28 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked No | 1c | 37,987$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.13 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 29c | 35,648$10,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,447.96 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…a126backed No | 1c | 34,255$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cf…b8d3backed Yes | 19c | 33,005$6,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,581.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +124%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked No | 1c | 22,636$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.76 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…4a91backed No | 80c | 19,997$15,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,982.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 41c | 17,656$7,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,385.58 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…62febacked No | 1c | 16,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 24c | 16,588$4,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,543.51 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 58c | 15,019$8,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,261.11 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 74c | 14,094$10,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,484.54 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x72e7…dc57backed Yes | 24c | 13,948$3,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,591.7 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…52ccbacked No | 41c | 12,844$5,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,237.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed Yes | 14c | 12,116$1,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,365.35 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +88%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked No | 36c | 12,060$4,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,334 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…90d0backed No | 34c | 12,000$4,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,058.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 19c | 11,253$2,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,139.2 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8133…a2c4backed Yes | 76c | 11,028$8,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,654.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 28c | 10,987$3,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,918.88 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 23c | 10,447$2,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,040.57 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 32c | 10,255$3,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,317.81 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21fa…e14cbacked Yes | 10c | 10,210$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,214.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +241.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed No | 1c | 10,113$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 71c | 10,000$7,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,100 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed No | 1c | 10,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.56 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed No | 1c | 10,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…ef4ebacked Yes | 22c | 9,624$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,504.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +127%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…ddfebacked Yes | 64c | 9,238$5,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,325.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked No | 74c | 8,855$6,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,555.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed No | 68c | 8,312$5,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,652.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 1c | 8,252$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe61…4665backed Yes | 22c | 8,153$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,359 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…6a1cbacked No | 32c | 8,078$2,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,564.59 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b86…73ddbacked Yes | 64c | 7,893$5,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,813.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…6a22backed Yes | 70c | 7,743$5,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,323.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 28c | 7,712$2,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,183.7 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 55c | 6,954$3,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,853.36 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 52c | 6,785$3,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,498.54 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked No | 1c | 6,765$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b1…c7c9backed No | 53c | 6,584$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked No | 67c | 6,001$4,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,020.63 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 28c | 6,000$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,300 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 49c | 5,716$2,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,827.28 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked No | 78c | 5,576$4,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,342.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 18c | 5,556$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,532.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…d03cbacked No | 0c | 5,544$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…57edbacked Yes | 9c | 5,297$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,831.47 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +98%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked No | 67c | 5,216$3,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,474.81 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…2c7abacked Yes | 24c | 5,175$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,942.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +319.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 33c | 5,105$1,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,402.22 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 75c | 5,000$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc833…c62dbacked Yes | 27c | 5,000$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,670.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +88%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 26c | 5,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.99 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20d3…634ebacked Yes | 34c | 4,943$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,281.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +197.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa125…f5aebacked No | 0c | 4,865$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes | 21c | 4,829$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,813.94 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6f…246dbacked Yes | 30c | 4,794$1,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,355.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…0c0cbacked Yes | 60c | 4,613$2,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,823.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569e…67dbbacked No | 71c | 4,600$3,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,266 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 76c | 4,501$3,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…a644backed No | 36c | 4,483$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked No | 67c | 4,462$2,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,993.38 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2fa6backed No | 69c | 4,387$3,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,043.53 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…dd1ebacked Yes | 28c | 4,386$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,168.87 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed No | 51c | 4,278$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,174.57 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4821…a754backed No | 35c | 4,215$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 21c | 4,151$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,274.02 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 76c | 4,000$3,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,049.99 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe718…8cb6backed Yes | 13c | 3,882$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,381.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +288.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yes | 28c | 3,837$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,766.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 80c | 3,778$3,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,013.48 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…07f3backed Yes | 15c | 3,643$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,100.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +236%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 16c | 3,592$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,021.2 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 50c | 3,587$1,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,788.3 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2d…f0d4backed Yes | 76c | 3,500$2,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked No | 0c | 3,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…6387backed Yes | 30c | 3,320$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,321.31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 77c | 3,301$2,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,548.34 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 3c | 3,289$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…82bbbacked Yes | 26c | 3,225$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,374.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24c…74a6backed Yes | 26c | 3,201$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,362.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 21c | 3,139$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,491.47 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 24c | 3,044$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,319.02 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 1c | 3,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…0ac5backed No | 64c | 2,970$1,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901.66 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda88…ee37backed Yes | 38c | 2,967$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,830.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…4eccbacked No | 64c | 2,892$1,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 23c | 2,800$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,146 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee2…479cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,713$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,495.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fc…3103backed No | 0c | 2,711$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…dcd8backed Yes | 13c | 2,614$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,284.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60c…a6a0backed Yes | 21c | 2,600$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.46 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked No | 1c | 2,590$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…712dbacked Yes | 16c | 2,566$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,167.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +542.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? this page
- Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Jamie Dimon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Sarah Palin be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Steve Bannon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.