TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x00a9…36bb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
141
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Boxing, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Boxing at 56 out of 100; worst Dota2 at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Dota2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT4542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$492Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+68.7%+$338.1
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,154Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+27.3%+$314.61
Will Nigma Galaxy Win The International 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$187
Will Team Liquid Win The International 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$315
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Elimination Roundbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.26
Dota 2: Aurora vs BoomBoys - Game 1 Winnerbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$387Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$102.98
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winnerbacked GamerLegion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.58
Will Aurora Gaming Win The International 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winnerbacked GamerLegion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$310.98
Dota 2: Aurora vs BoomBoys - Game 2 Winnerbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$387Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$387.16
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+301.4%+$843.93
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,440Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,439.76
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winnerbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,036Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,036.19
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.5
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$508Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$508.16
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$553Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$553.11
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Xtreme Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$252.18
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+61.9%+$309.26
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Aurora (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$709Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$708.51
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$526Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+259.9%+$1,366.32
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+219.1%+$328.62
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Xtreme Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,600Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+63.6%+$1,018.03
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3)backed Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$389.23
Dota 2: OG vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winnerbacked OG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,060Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+73.9%+$782.58
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2025, EDT3429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.86
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT+190.4%+$22.29
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+66%+$135.15
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$538Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$537.81
Will Trump tweet 4+ times by next Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$683Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST+74.9%+$511.9
Will Trump tweet 10-14 times Nov 15-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$60
Will Trump tweet 15-19 times Nov 8-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$40
Will Trump tweet 20-29 times Nov 8-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+1,150%+$126.5
Will Trump tweet 30-39 times Nov 8-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+53.8%+$33.92
Will Trump tweet 10-14 times Nov 8-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2024, EST-100%-$73
Will Trump tweet less than 5 times Nov 8-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$483Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2024, EST+28%+$135.21
Will Trump tweet 120-129 times Nov 1-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$18
Will Trump tweet 130 or more times Nov 1-8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST+57.2%+$111.13
Will Trump tweet 50-59 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$389.8
Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$103
Will Trump tweet 50 or more times October 18-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2024, EDT-100%-$600
Will Trump tweet 45-49 times October 18-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2024, EDT-100%-$138.22
Will Trump tweet 40-44 times October 18-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2024, EDT-100%-$180
Will Trump tweet 35-39 times October 18-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2024, EDT-100%-$312
Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$125
Will Elon tweet 200-224 October 11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2024, EDT+69.5%+$52.12
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times October 4-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times October 4-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$28
Will Elon tweet 200-224 times October 4-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$43
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times October 4-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$118
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2025, EST1656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$4,334Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$4,334
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$524Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+40.8%+$214.03
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$26,969Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+37.4%+$10,089.15
Will Trump appoint Karoline Leavitt for White House Press Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,816Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+33.7%+$612.22
Will Trump nominate Doug Burgum for Interior Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+154.2%+$308.45
Will Trump say "Illegal" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$42
Will Trump say "Victory" three or more times in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+150.3%+$127.95
Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$581Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+85.4%+$496.31
Will Trump say "MAGA" in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$617Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$616.63
Will Trump say "Elon" in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$106.67
Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$690Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$690.08
Will Trump say "We Won" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+51.5%+$18.83
Will Trump say "Fraud" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$303Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+63.9%+$193.44
Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$707Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$706.65
Will Trump say "God" in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+500%+$1,177.72
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$101
All 16 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2025, EST1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+233.3%+$116.67
Nuggets vs. Netsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT+85.2%+$339.66
Kings vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$200
Mavericks vs. Timberwolvesbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT+157.9%+$482.53
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$244.12
Jazz vs. Mavericksbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$100
Nuggets vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$105
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$100
Bucks vs. Celticsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$132
Will Bronny score in his next game?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$100
Will Bronny James score a point tonight?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$247
All 11 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Pump.fun >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$121.84
Pump.fun >$5B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$582Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$582.46
$PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$104.75
$PENGU market cap (FDV) $2-4b one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$3,005Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+66.4%+$1,995.69
Will Binance list another Pump.fun coin in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+75.4%+$86
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2024, EST+134.8%+$345.25
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$555Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$555.1
Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$166
All 9 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Boxing — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$805Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$805
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,466Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2024, EDT+113.4%+$1,661.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX 6th Starship launch reaches space?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST+42.9%+$23.88
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$7,990Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$7,989.82
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 18, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 12, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,548Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,548
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.