Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 10-14 times Nov 8-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25057f47fd558d29aeadd904c4e24d0c7b567762bd4d5eab1112e068450752ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae61…4e32backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 38c | 862.88$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.14 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe464…25ecbacked Yes | 36c | 569.11$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +845.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 35c | 553.61$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.84 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 15c | 491.11$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…9f7ebacked No | 64c | 473.26$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 444.84$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 37c | 441.96$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.02 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 43c | 395.22$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…c30ebacked Yes | 29c | 361.31$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…d143backed Yes | 18c | 344.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 25c | 273.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 264.7$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.01 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46bb…3875backed Yes | 25c | 259.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 10c | 233.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 18c | 180$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 78c | 158.12$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 16c | 127.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 78c | 115.51$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 19c | 113.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acc…cde5backed Yes | 37c | 109.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04fd…3930backed Yes | 30c | 100.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02dc…dc31backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 41c | 99.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7722…ee4bbacked No | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5c…7560backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 66c | 83.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 64c | 78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 64c | 77.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1560…670cbacked Yes | 39c | 76.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06d…615fbacked Yes | 22c | 70.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…07cebacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…cd9ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…02a3backed Yes | 30c | 58.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes | 29c | 56.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 77c | 53.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4084…1b19backed No | 73c | 52.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2e…182dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dda…3805backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 36c | 49.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16a8…b903backed No | 74c | 48.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dd…bc0ebacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 54c | 33.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f14…b199backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 56c | 32.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…57b5backed Yes | 33c | 30.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fe…472cbacked Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4b…b6debacked No | 63c | 23.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7472…53b2backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times Nov 8-15?this page
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-29 times Nov 8-15?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 30-39 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 5-9 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50 or more times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet less than 5 times Nov 8-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.