Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 5-9 times Nov 8-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa97d2a617f66ceaf5545e90e4c4f8ddc1bfefc094f1f3739bccfa9c6da226dbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd288…0187backed Yes | 58c | 2,209$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283.7 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b2…aa53backed No | 66c | 1,739$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x936e…df07backed Yes | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedaf…54f8backed No | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…9ce6backed Yes | 51c | 1,202$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 36c | 1,174$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.4 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…6055backed No | 64c | 1,138$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.68 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes | 60c | 1,093$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.81 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…f903backed Yes | 48c | 1,022$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked No | 52c | 982.96$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.89 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 32c | 667.4$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.06 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…9f7ebacked Yes | 35c | 599$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.65 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…cbf7backed No | 72c | 586.37$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 27c | 549.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.99 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd706…6540backed Yes | 76c | 535.03$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 36c | 520.7$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe464…25ecbacked Yes | 26c | 486.51$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +845.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 41c | 448.03$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.89 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 58c | 412.39$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.38 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 393.52$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.89 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 20c | 388.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 352.26$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.44 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 73c | 323.33$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 59c | 300$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…9be3backed No | 67c | 297.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fb…2bfdbacked No | 64c | 270$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 42c | 264.13$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.17 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed Yes | 40c | 229.73$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 72c | 220.98$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 27c | 220.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…f625backed Yes | 32c | 212.48$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ba…97a1backed Yes | 45c | 209.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c9…0a60backed No | 60c | 208.42$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…84edbacked Yes | 36c | 207$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…c30ebacked Yes | 37c | 206.84$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…c01abacked Yes | 36c | 194.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 79c | 183$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bc…25b8backed Yes | 24c | 170.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…3f6abacked Yes | 35c | 144$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fa…9386backed Yes | 57c | 143.51$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2038…1024backed Yes | 34c | 140$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…1582backed No | 66c | 140$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +253.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…296dbacked Yes | 73c | 136.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46bb…3875backed Yes | 39c | 126.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 43c | 123.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 63c | 119.84$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd066…4ad4backed No | 66c | 103.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 33c | 100.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dd…bc0ebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11b4…cb17backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…a743backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…29febacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…f145backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 59c | 89.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 39c | 83.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…07cebacked Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e36…13b2backed Yes | 38c | 79.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5678…5ffabacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe465…ea00backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777b…08b0backed No | 76c | 71.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4d…d789backed Yes | 42c | 70.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8289…637abacked No | 60c | 70.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…f49bbacked Yes | 47c | 67.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 51c | 67.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f9…d965backed Yes | 38c | 62.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…02a3backed Yes | 47c | 51.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…dd52backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dda…3805backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 72c | 49.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c8…9814backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6db…5dd9backed Yes | 36c | 46.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…2e4dbacked No | 55c | 45.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b5…88bfbacked Yes | 37c | 42.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb398…170abacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f14…b199backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 57c | 35.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e18…b903backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…5621backed Yes | 42c | 31.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af1…2f3abacked Yes | 41c | 30.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbe…1276backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b46…0fdcbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43fe…472cbacked Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe0…cc83backed Yes | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f6…e694backed No | 70c | 24.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…dd35backed No | 60c | 21.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06d…615fbacked Yes | 75c | 20.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80ea…7e18backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…7167backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 5-9 times Nov 8-15?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-29 times Nov 8-15?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 30-39 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50 or more times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet less than 5 times Nov 8-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.