Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet less than 5 times Nov 8-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a98b5cf8709311d9c52eca1a563a9f49b6011854ebd5c0426d6b0dfeebe0bfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed No | 70c | 3,487$2,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.47 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b2…aa53backed No | 75c | 2,658$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf982…1c15backed No | 63c | 2,645$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.45 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe464…25ecbacked Yes | 5c | 2,298$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +845.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed Yes | 2c | 2,082$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 38c | 2,032$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +220.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13dc…72f4backed Yes | 31c | 1,542$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…9ce6backed Yes | 23c | 1,449$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…6055backed No | 78c | 1,260$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.01 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f69…9c7abacked Yes | 29c | 1,182$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.78 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 25c | 1,128$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.45 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 2c | 881.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed Yes | 23c | 756.36$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 19c | 707.33$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 4c | 675.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked No | 78c | 618.21$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.21 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e36…13b2backed Yes | 44c | 570.05$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 78c | 534.55$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.93 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab64…d070backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +572.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed No | 71c | 499.98$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.99 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c6…dba8backed Yes | 29c | 372.65$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 3c | 355.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…84edbacked Yes | 31c | 330$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 267.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495a…e5fabacked No | 79c | 249.65$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 31c | 241.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…43fdbacked Yes | 22c | 239.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…c01abacked Yes | 25c | 226.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bc…25b8backed Yes | 37c | 213.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed Yes | 19c | 212.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7722…ee4bbacked Yes | 12c | 200.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…1971backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked No | 57c | 199.97$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fa…9386backed Yes | 13c | 190$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 79c | 184.9$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 18c | 176$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…2a0cbacked Yes | 15c | 168.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe5…66c2backed Yes | 21c | 156.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777b…08b0backed No | 62c | 143$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 14c | 130.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 20c | 119.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…36bebacked Yes | 10c | 110.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 22c | 102.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f5…32aebacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff09…a205backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +169.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…29febacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 79c | 95.22$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe407…0e8bbacked Yes | 22c | 88.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 84.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x687e…de8bbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf53b…da58backed Yes | 21c | 65.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e1…a24abacked Yes | 26c | 58.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…cd9ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f7…603abacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 64c | 55.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…ada9backed Yes | 25c | 55.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 42c | 51.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…5eedbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dda…3805backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5678…5ffabacked No | 80c | 47.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c98…280fbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd582…fd69backed No | 75c | 38.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792e…5180backed Yes | 31c | 38.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fc…9838backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d09…cb29backed No | 75c | 37.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…3cc3backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…53ddbacked No | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +85%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…83f5backed No | 75c | 26.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…0763backed No | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…7340backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed00…ef56backed Yes | 43c | 24.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2817…5a26backed No | 75c | 24.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8828…221ebacked No | 79c | 24.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…5aa9backed No | 75c | 23.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d09…6139backed No | 75c | 14.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet less than 5 times Nov 8-15?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-29 times Nov 8-15?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 30-39 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 5-9 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50 or more times Nov 8-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.