TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7722…ee4b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: NBA, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 53 out of 100; worst World Politics at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT2334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.06
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in Rebounds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.53
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+669.2%+$391.62
Will LaMelo Ball lead the NBA in scoring?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.8
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in Rebounds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.38
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in scoring?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.54
Will Luca Doncic lead the NBA in scoring?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.4
Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST+1,011.1%+$182
Hornets vs. Magicbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST-100%-$24
Hornets vs. 76ersbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2024, EST-100%-$32
Celtics vs. Bucksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+61.3%+$8.44
Raptors vs. Clippersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$105.49
Bulls vs. Hawksbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+132.6%+$114.44
Rockets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST+35.1%+$65
Nets vs. Celticsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$29
Suns vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$173.99
Warriors vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST+61.3%+$11.75
Bucks vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST+58.7%+$92.5
Pacers vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST+112.8%+$53
Jazz vs. Bucksbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$57.49
Trail Blazers vs. Spursbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$169.96
All 23 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump declassifies Diddy list?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+53.3%+$41.7
Trump transgender sports ban?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST+63.9%+$39
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$62.5
Will Trump remove FBI director Christopher Wray?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+177.8%+$70.4
Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$90.7
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST+100%+$35
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+270.4%+$75.7
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$28.8
Will Trump say "Elon" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+132.6%+$39.9
Will Trump say "We Won" in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$29.9
Will Trump say "God" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$31.86
Will Trump say "America" five or more times in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$27.5
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$50.15
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$23.77
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+389.9%+$389.9
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$50
All 17 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2024, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-76.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+170.3%+$68.11
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$32
ATP Finals: Zverev vs. Rublevbacked Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2024, EST-100%-$25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+61.3%+$38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$17.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Patrick Mahomes win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Moana 2' gross between $165-180m on 5-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST-100%-$14.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.