Us Politics · resolved market
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x475e0fd32b211c0cfe6755638efceba2373d01a7224c7750f77f978db104f639
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,473,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,921,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,473,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 516 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 7c | 201,262$13,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,479.71 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 10c | 200,346$20,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,487.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes | 6c | 173,700$10,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,560.25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…8553backed Yes | 5c | 123,326$5,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,814.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 6c | 119,429$7,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,688.93 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…2747backed Yes | 32c | 113,360$36,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,308.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 107,640$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.27 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d04…ed05backed Yes | 20c | 104,578$21,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,433.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a9…7b5bbacked Yes | 9c | 103,189$9,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,052.39 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes | 7c | 90,703$6,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,130.37 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6d…ab88backed Yes | 8c | 85,614$6,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,697.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bb…a4c5backed Yes | 6c | 78,558$4,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,530.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 8c | 77,354$6,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,461.9 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ea…3ea8backed Yes | 11c | 74,145$8,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,061.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes | 11c | 69,066$7,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,475.88 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c32…3945backed Yes | 6c | 68,913$4,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,047.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 63,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 5c | 61,089$3,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,183.19 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0344…2538backed Yes | 6c | 60,775$3,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,560.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…fc4cbacked Yes | 4c | 59,487$2,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,630.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…f80ebacked Yes | 8c | 58,909$4,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,939.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 13c | 55,897$7,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,427.54 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…810ebacked Yes | 0c | 51,315$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 8c | 50,670$4,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,073.3 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1171backed Yes | 7c | 46,707$3,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,311.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 5c | 45,716$2,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,285.78 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ec…a3a7backed Yes | 0c | 42,890$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes | 2c | 42,511$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.94 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ce…40d6backed Yes | 3c | 36,630$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ab…bcd9backed Yes | 8c | 35,914$2,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,843.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…39b9backed Yes | 6c | 32,247$1,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.49 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d0…c092backed Yes | 7c | 31,057$2,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,125.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…75e8backed Yes | 4c | 30,942$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…ddc1backed Yes | 17c | 30,116$4,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,970 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…c21bbacked Yes | 11c | 30,000$3,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,322.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0491…a47fbacked Yes | 5c | 30,000$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 7c | 29,824$2,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,018.53 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4814…1968backed Yes | 6c | 29,471$1,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901.21 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 7c | 29,238$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,180.09 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d5…3527backed Yes | 16c | 28,820$4,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,591.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…594fbacked Yes | 14c | 26,300$3,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,670.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 3c | 26,249$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes | 13c | 25,897$3,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,377.13 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 25,714$1,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,929 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…57edbacked Yes | 9c | 24,831$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +66%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…1338backed Yes | 7c | 24,500$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb152…8315backed Yes | 16c | 23,409$3,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,856.27 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 8c | 21,345$1,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,633.82 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f62…02efbacked Yes | 8c | 20,076$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaccb…fa79backed Yes | 8c | 19,930$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f2…7620backed Yes | 6c | 19,293$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27f…b128backed Yes | 3c | 19,000$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…389abacked Yes | 11c | 18,819$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,119.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…b476backed Yes | 9c | 18,647$1,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes | 12c | 18,506$2,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,230.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…6924backed Yes | 13c | 17,972$2,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,390.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes | 6c | 17,309$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.64 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed Yes | 8c | 17,000$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 8c | 17,000$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.74 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72f6…a5b5backed Yes | 12c | 16,682$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,023.09 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…4542backed Yes | 10c | 16,658$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes | 5c | 16,515$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.81 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…33f6backed Yes | 7c | 16,003$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a53…6cc0backed Yes | 3c | 15,825$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 6c | 15,739$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.36 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fd…e030backed Yes | 8c | 15,159$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 5c | 14,793$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.03 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…23d8backed Yes | 11c | 14,278$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.21 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b8…dc2bbacked Yes | 9c | 13,925$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecf…6742backed Yes | 4c | 13,649$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ea…22ecbacked Yes | 8c | 12,109$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…ed94backed Yes | 2c | 11,911$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…cee6backed Yes | 10c | 11,806$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3612…5b8bbacked Yes | 19c | 11,769$2,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,283 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 4c | 11,494$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.06 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 11c | 11,063$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.71 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…0420backed Yes | 9c | 11,056$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe184…08c5backed Yes | 9c | 10,800$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 3c | 10,757$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.33 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7108…7492backed Yes | 9c | 10,576$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…95a2backed Yes | 1c | 10,300$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 12c | 10,193$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.97 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac59…029ebacked Yes | 7c | 10,117$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…bb43backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Yes | 3c | 10,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x248b…d301backed Yes | 10c | 9,782$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb970…5866backed Yes | 0c | 9,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 10c | 9,365$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.21 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede2…b6b4backed Yes | 4c | 9,037$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b3…7f64backed Yes | 7c | 8,920$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…9549backed Yes | 10c | 8,792$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.96 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b6…360fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,789$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 0c | 8,383$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…8a52backed Yes | 7c | 8,322$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0d…afe6backed Yes | 8c | 8,273$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1426…2056backed Yes | 12c | 8,167$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed Yes | 10c | 8,011$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8628…27c2backed Yes | 8c | 7,985$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8055…44c4backed Yes | 8c | 7,746$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.72 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f3…91a0backed Yes | 9c | 7,599$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154this page
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 215+No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 5-14No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 1-4No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 155-214No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 5-14No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104Yes won
- Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.