TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,473,741
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,921,066

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,473,741 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 516 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes7c201,262$13,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,479.715641.1%23 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes10c200,346$20,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,487.2750%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes6c173,700$10,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,560.251711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9244…8553backed Yes5c123,326$5,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,814.061145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+104.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes6c119,429$7,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,688.932015%3 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-34.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf440…2747backed Yes32c113,360$36,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,308.32425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+2.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes1c107,640$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.273859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d04…ed05backed Yes20c104,578$21,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,433.29616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-66.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44a9…7b5bbacked Yes9c103,189$9,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,052.3970%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes7c90,703$6,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,130.37120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb6d…ab88backed Yes8c85,614$6,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,697.56812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-32.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7bb…a4c5backed Yes6c78,558$4,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,530.61714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick7cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes8c77,354$6,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,461.917225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6ea…3ea8backed Yes11c74,145$8,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,061.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes11c69,066$7,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,475.882445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c32…3945backed Yes6c68,913$4,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,047.93425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c63,000$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1172847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes5c61,089$3,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,183.193132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0344…2538backed Yes6c60,775$3,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,560.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8c8…fc4cbacked Yes4c59,487$2,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,630.64944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc48…f80ebacked Yes8c58,909$4,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,939.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes13c55,897$7,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,427.5413540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0377…810ebacked Yes0c51,315$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852516%4 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-58.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4124…5827backed Yes8c50,670$4,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,073.32339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba1…1171backed Yes7c46,707$3,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,311.32650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+67.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes5c45,716$2,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,285.783234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86ec…a3a7backed Yes0c42,890$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes2c42,511$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.94156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-80.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ce…40d6backed Yes3c36,630$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8ab…bcd9backed Yes8c35,914$2,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,843.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe006…39b9backed Yes6c32,247$1,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,911.49110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76d0…c092backed Yes7c31,057$2,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,125.11728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d1…75e8backed Yes4c30,942$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.67728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick16cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e87…ddc1backed Yes17c30,116$4,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,97040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd2…c21bbacked Yes11c30,000$3,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,322.07560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+68.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0491…a47fbacked Yes5c30,000$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes7c29,824$2,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,018.53147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4814…1968backed Yes6c29,471$1,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,901.21160%0 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes7c29,238$2,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,180.0912910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1d5…3527backed Yes16c28,820$4,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,591.53333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…594fbacked Yes14c26,300$3,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,670.64666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+37.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes3c26,249$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002516%4 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes13c25,897$3,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,377.13128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-66.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c25,714$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92996319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x522f…57edbacked Yes9c24,831$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+66%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6606…1338backed Yes7c24,500$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-63.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb152…8315backed Yes16c23,409$3,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,856.271010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-73.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes8c21,345$1,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,633.8215332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f62…02efbacked Yes8c20,076$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,608.751442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaccb…fa79backed Yes8c19,930$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79f2…7620backed Yes6c19,293$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27f…b128backed Yes3c19,000$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x530c…389abacked Yes11c18,819$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x008b…b476backed Yes9c18,647$1,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,726.6850%4 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+132.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes12c18,506$2,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,230.48540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+37.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad69…6924backed Yes13c17,972$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,390.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes6c17,309$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.64175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-84.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b1a…efe7backed Yes8c17,000$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4442035%7 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes8c17,000$1,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,334.7437844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x72f6…a5b5backed Yes12c16,682$2,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,023.09812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-58.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd503…4542backed Yes10c16,658$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+56%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes5c16,515$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.812835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3513…33f6backed Yes7c16,003$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.62425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a53…6cc0backed Yes3c15,825$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.04616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes6c15,739$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.364833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59fd…e030backed Yes8c15,159$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.72425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes5c14,793$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.036028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad90…23d8backed Yes11c14,278$1,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,558.211838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+65.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54b8…dc2bbacked Yes9c13,925$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbecf…6742backed Yes4c13,649$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ea…22ecbacked Yes8c12,109$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1601…ed94backed Yes2c11,911$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.3540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-21.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x072a…cee6backed Yes10c11,806$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.29560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick22cpaid+121.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3612…5b8bbacked Yes19c11,769$2,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,283110%0 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes4c11,494$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.061225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid+89.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes11c11,063$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.7115646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x025e…0420backed Yes9c11,056$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9501010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-76.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe184…08c5backed Yes9c10,800$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes3c10,757$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.337931.6%25 W · 54 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7108…7492backed Yes9c10,576$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a1…95a2backed Yes1c10,300$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed Yes12c10,193$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.971435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick61cpaid-41.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xac59…029ebacked Yes7c10,117$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe877…bb43backed Yes5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-68.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Yes3c10,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33070%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x248b…d301backed Yes10c9,782$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb970…5866backed Yes0c9,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-58.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes10c9,365$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.215038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xede2…b6b4backed Yes4c9,037$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4b3…7f64backed Yes7c8,920$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+110.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe091…9549backed Yes10c8,792$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.96812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b6…360fbacked Yes0c8,789$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes0c8,383$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-48.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x535e…8a52backed Yes7c8,322$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+51%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c0d…afe6backed Yes8c8,273$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+62.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1426…2056backed Yes12c8,167$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2755…5016backed Yes10c8,011$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.09650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8628…27c2backed Yes8c7,985$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick26cpaid+114.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8055…44c4backed Yes8c7,746$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.721915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f3…91a0backed Yes9c7,599$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.84714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.