TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8055…44c4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
44
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: WNBA, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category WNBA at 52 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$201.35
Will Trump use a recess appointment for Matt Gaetz?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST+25%+$60
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,040Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$1,040
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,635Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$1,634.7
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$8,013Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST+155.2%+$12,437.02
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$2,091Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$2,090.81
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$4,845Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$4,845
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11,188Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+200.1%+$22,382.16
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$641Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$640.72
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 5-14backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$640Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$639.96
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,265Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$1,265.21
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 1-4backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$173.75
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$674Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$673.5
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,453Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$1,453.37
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$28
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,625Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$1,625
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 5-14backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,244Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$1,244.26
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$3,073Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$3,073.44
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$108.6
All 19 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-39.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-77.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick73cpaid-54.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 12, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$714Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST-100%-$714.5
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$660Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST-100%-$659.97
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Minnesota Lynx win the 2024 WNBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT+58.7%+$74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,840Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+40.8%+$1,160
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ashton Jeanty win the Heisman Trophy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+35.9%+$26.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Aug 10, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$23
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 17, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump attend UFC 319?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$88
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.