TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,563,203
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,387,244

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,563,203 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 857 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes25c481,828$120,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360,955.135641.1%23 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5431…47e1backed Yes15c415,629$63,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351,729.171241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+65.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes14c145,743$19,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125,820.163132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc200…3c75backed Yes22c134,081$29,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104,798.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+357.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes53c125,713$66,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,528.17633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…594fbacked Yes31c124,821$38,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,635.23666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+37.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes16c120,690$19,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,792.642015%3 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-34.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes19c100,000$18,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,034.294833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes17c96,453$16,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,897.821711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed No0c90,881$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.3710211.8%12 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4124…5827backed Yes16c72,526$11,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,785.712339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf440…2747backed Yes24c69,885$17,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,816.94425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+2.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb7bb…a4c5backed Yes15c62,312$9,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,916.22714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick7cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No1c62,000$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4312847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes44c56,731$24,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,011.5213540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a21…ac9cbacked Yes23c52,806$12,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,798.47560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+47%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x76d0…c092backed Yes19c52,408$10,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,229.55728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x008b…b476backed Yes19c51,588$9,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,016.68850%4 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+132.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x46ce…2b07backed Yes26c49,977$12,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,015.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+285.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x419d…487fbacked No6c48,000$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,719.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes23c45,827$10,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,312.746028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes25c42,827$10,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,049.22128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-66.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa09e…17c2backed Yes12c41,556$5,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,436.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+305.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No1c41,460$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.323859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e9…af79backed Yes32c38,752$12,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,351.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1165…89e9backed Yes72c37,593$27,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,511.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d5…3527backed Yes29c36,028$10,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,579.88333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce01…8a2cbacked Yes55c34,954$19,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,784.16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8055…44c4backed Yes33c33,570$11,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,382.161915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes27c30,681$8,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,340.91540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+37.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x770e…a10dbacked Yes25c30,637$7,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,027.18812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f62…02efbacked Yes18c29,039$5,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,897.191442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb1…326cbacked Yes20c29,000$5,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,209.15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+66.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2880…b493backed Yes31c28,143$8,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,444.351010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-67.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes14c27,881$4,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,854.85147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x058b…0e24backed Yes12c27,614$3,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,264.361020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09df…2644backed Yes25c27,259$6,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,444.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+189.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x248b…d301backed Yes25c26,641$6,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,872333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41f2…eecfbacked Yes18c25,064$4,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,508.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+450.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Yes28c25,014$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,013.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf625…aeb8backed Yes20c25,001$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,000.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes21c25,000$5,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,775.8437844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f36…6c9cbacked Yes24c25,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6261…7ce4backed Yes23c25,000$5,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,154.63742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+60.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ba1…1171backed Yes21c24,988$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,788.18650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+67.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c0d…afe6backed Yes21c24,536$5,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,494.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+62.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54bf…eb1abacked Yes21c24,499$5,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,472.51822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x522f…57edbacked Yes20c23,901$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,101.23333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+66%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd503…4542backed Yes21c23,641$5,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,590.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+56%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes37c23,074$8,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,474.462445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x072a…cee6backed Yes26c22,764$5,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,826.55560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick22cpaid+121.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa922…0abebacked Yes14c22,141$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,041.11560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+106%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ec8…5709backed Yes21c22,000$4,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,380450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+99.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb777…3ef1backed Yes37c21,683$8,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,629.97728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-41.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda2f…baccbacked No0c21,286$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.015721.1%12 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-69%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No4c20,763$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.468921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80d1…75e8backed Yes24c20,003$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,202.43728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick16cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c3c…1b01backed Yes20c20,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,000475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+91.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed No0c20,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302516%4 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2755…5016backed Yes26c20,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,800650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72f6…a5b5backed Yes30c19,413$5,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,545.06812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-58.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eb0…ebeabacked Yes10c19,091$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,090.91333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+218.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c32…3945backed Yes19c18,756$3,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,274.9425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes19c18,722$3,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,206.8612910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes20c18,000$3,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,387.075038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9ca…04c5backed Yes25c17,678$4,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,319.85119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-63.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4433…fc19backed Yes23c17,138$3,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,209.86425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ae…93ecbacked Yes69c15,716$10,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,800.16119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-86.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x55a6…3899backed Yes27c14,959$4,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,952.18450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+69.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef6d…9bd2backed Yes17c14,575$2,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,060.42347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bd2…c21bbacked Yes22c14,206$3,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,081.06560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+68.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a28…e629backed Yes28c13,577$3,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,836520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed Yes30c13,564$4,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,520.877639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f3…91a0backed Yes22c13,279$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,318.61714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x063d…3567backed Yes75c13,155$9,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,287.631163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+56.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x73c7…b175backed Yes27c13,062$3,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,498.14520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes19c13,000$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,5603727%10 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89e7…df6bbacked Yes21c12,505$2,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,838.68475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+80.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa845…2307backed Yes69c12,420$8,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,847.231338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick26cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9cf…a0d0backed Yes25c11,766$2,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,840.42540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73f7…b51dbacked Yes21c11,441$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,090.72425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc72b…3756backed Yes43c11,396$4,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,533.512941.4%12 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+2.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5405…3d7cbacked Yes62c11,259$6,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,262.11010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-83.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe091…9549backed Yes18c10,879$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,878.66812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes29c10,750$3,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,619.8315646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes59c10,742$6,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,453.841315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-72.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3195…a94fbacked No67c10,692$7,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,184.1740%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes20c10,681$2,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,498.331216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bff…ffbebacked Yes22c10,637$2,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,331.191435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa063…7248backed Yes24c10,563$2,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,985.05450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+55.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0377…810ebacked No2c10,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802516%4 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-58.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdfc…288cbacked Yes76c10,000$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,400580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed No0c10,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+67.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb59…4e58backed Yes29c9,683$2,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,905.14258%2 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-61.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb236…d8cabacked Yes25c9,666$2,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,259.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+100.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31fc…4e30backed Yes25c9,598$2,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,228.362520%5 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad90…23d8backed Yes19c9,551$1,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,783.911838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+65.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes24c9,539$2,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,242.53735.1%13 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick24cpaid-19.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e63…81b3backed Yes24c9,250$2,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,045520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x536f…d9f9backed Yes17c9,154$1,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,597.87714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.