Us Politics · resolved market
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 5-14
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x272461ac34da7a85f4c7f6cad291b10b9268061e5813cad8c9cb9897cf0d94a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,235,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,508,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,235,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 523 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3612…5b8bbacked Yes | 6c | 330,084$18,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,230.23 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 5c | 271,740$13,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,778.57 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 5c | 212,793$9,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,832.5 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 5c | 132,539$6,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,422.47 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…df8dbacked Yes | 8c | 128,083$9,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,831.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc6…5881backed Yes | 6c | 117,449$6,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,660.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb1…326cbacked Yes | 1c | 100,112$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 6c | 100,000$6,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,300 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…a7fdbacked Yes | 5c | 100,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 5c | 96,157$5,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,048.74 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 5c | 95,889$5,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,141.65 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77fc…b5ffbacked Yes | 6c | 83,864$5,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,250.59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 5c | 82,459$4,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,194.88 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 4c | 81,992$3,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,412.93 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7899…af3abacked Yes | 7c | 77,298$5,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,425 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…afe7backed Yes | 9c | 74,375$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 6c | 74,111$4,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,302.39 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…8412backed Yes | 5c | 72,411$3,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,624.19 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…b0cabacked Yes | 9c | 67,755$6,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,377.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 64,949$3,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,443.21 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Yes | 2c | 64,443$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes | 6c | 64,295$3,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,994.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…481fbacked Yes | 5c | 62,584$3,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,270.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc4…18ecbacked Yes | 5c | 57,104$3,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,106.29 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…8c31backed Yes | 7c | 53,238$3,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,787.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 6c | 50,501$3,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,212.11 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 6c | 49,408$2,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,996.83 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes | 6c | 43,479$2,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,481.28 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 0c | 42,239$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.78 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0120…b177backed Yes | 1c | 38,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…df99backed Yes | 6c | 37,123$2,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,362.82 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca5…76bfbacked Yes | 6c | 33,472$2,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,032.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…39b9backed Yes | 5c | 31,554$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.41 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c6…c079backed Yes | 0c | 29,760$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84e9…e2ecbacked Yes | 6c | 29,303$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,832.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…dd76backed Yes | 11c | 28,091$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 5c | 27,000$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.83 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 4c | 26,778$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.78 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 6c | 26,299$1,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.83 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c3…b47abacked Yes | 5c | 26,032$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 6c | 25,540$1,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.4 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…080ebacked Yes | 5c | 25,000$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 2c | 24,893$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.25 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cd…247bbacked Yes | 5c | 24,450$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8055…44c4backed Yes | 6c | 21,656$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.26 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb3…3b3abacked Yes | 0c | 21,290$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 5c | 21,091$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.61 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4814…1968backed Yes | 6c | 20,865$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.3 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…e1c9backed Yes | 5c | 20,609$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…b03fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,490$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…5ba3backed Yes | 6c | 20,086$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…39b3backed Yes | 5c | 19,366$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f1…ff97backed Yes | 6c | 19,266$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 5c | 19,000$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…7444backed Yes | 4c | 18,308$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.11 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ca…9069backed Yes | 6c | 18,045$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6a…5869backed Yes | 0c | 17,900$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…2e81backed Yes | 6c | 16,943$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.29 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a50…1248backed Yes | 4c | 16,500$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…ce50backed Yes | 7c | 16,005$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Yes | 5c | 15,860$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.89 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd18f…681ebacked Yes | 6c | 15,684$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52cd…f61dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,380$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be8…07a7backed Yes | 6c | 15,133$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc825…45b7backed Yes | 0c | 15,080$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 5c | 15,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.58 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3206…da51backed Yes | 7c | 14,807$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…0fa9backed Yes | 7c | 14,040$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed Yes | 7c | 13,800$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…ed33backed Yes | 7c | 13,657$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d4…7930backed Yes | 5c | 13,356$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8435…df2cbacked Yes | 4c | 13,270$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…b565backed Yes | 5c | 12,820$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.56 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb367…3f7cbacked Yes | 5c | 12,668$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.36 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6c…95c6backed Yes | 6c | 12,555$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes | 5c | 12,500$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3988…7515backed Yes | 6c | 12,285$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bd…e78cbacked Yes | 4c | 12,200$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 5c | 12,180$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.11 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…ed88backed Yes | 6c | 11,952$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fc…4e30backed Yes | 5c | 11,803$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.96 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abc…2db2backed Yes | 6c | 11,701$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdd…f191backed Yes | 7c | 11,565$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.34 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 6c | 11,497$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.16 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730b…9055backed Yes | 5c | 11,305$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 5c | 11,234$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.03 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…d854backed Yes | 4c | 10,846$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.91 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 6c | 10,797$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.87 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe215…c8afbacked Yes | 4c | 10,500$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…2d17backed Yes | 0c | 10,120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb87…3bdbbacked Yes | 7c | 10,097$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.93 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes | 3c | 10,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57f…e5fcbacked Yes | 5c | 10,000$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Yes | 4c | 10,000$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.3 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ae…5ddebacked Yes | 5c | 10,000$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1a…c653backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes | 5c | 10,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb17…9af6backed Yes | 4c | 9,723$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9e…4a64backed Yes | 7c | 9,686$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 5-14this page
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 215+No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64No won
- 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 1-4No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 155-214No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 5-14No won
- 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104Yes won
- Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.