TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Us Politics · resolved market

2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 5-14

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,235,007
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,508,483

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,235,007 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 523 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3612…5b8bbacked Yes6c330,084$18,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,230.23110%0 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes5c271,740$13,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,778.577041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked Yes5c212,793$9,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,832.53212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes5c132,539$6,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,422.47170%0 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb5b…df8dbacked Yes8c128,083$9,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,831.8870%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc6…5881backed Yes6c117,449$6,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,660.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb1…326cbacked Yes1c100,112$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+66.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed Yes6c100,000$6,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,3001546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24ae…a7fdbacked Yes5c100,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes5c96,157$5,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,048.7410452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes5c95,889$5,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,141.6517225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77fc…b5ffbacked Yes6c83,864$5,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,250.5970%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes5c82,459$4,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,194.8813540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes4c81,992$3,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,412.938921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7899…af3abacked Yes7c77,298$5,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,42560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes9c74,375$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,5001127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-61.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes6c74,111$4,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,302.39316.5%2 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Yes5c72,411$3,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,624.191216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-78.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8b6…b0cabacked Yes9c67,755$6,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,377.51728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c64,949$3,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,443.2196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f1a…6dc0backed Yes2c64,443$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.4740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes6c64,295$3,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,994.41540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+37.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9716…481fbacked Yes5c62,584$3,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,270.6660%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc4…18ecbacked Yes5c57,104$3,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,106.2990%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe9…8c31backed Yes7c53,238$3,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,787.4370%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes6c50,501$3,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,212.112429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes6c49,408$2,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,996.8310749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes6c43,479$2,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,481.28175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-84.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes0c42,239$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.783859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0120…b177backed Yes1c38,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfb…df99backed Yes6c37,123$2,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,362.82120%0 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ca5…76bfbacked Yes6c33,472$2,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,032.34425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-68.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe006…39b9backed Yes5c31,554$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.41110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c6…c079backed Yes0c29,760$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84e9…e2ecbacked Yes6c29,303$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,832.7150%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x71d9…dd76backed Yes11c28,091$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes5c27,000$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.832015%3 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-34.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes4c26,778$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.78287.1%2 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes6c26,299$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,572.835038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62c3…b47abacked Yes5c26,032$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.6660%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes6c25,540$1,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,543.4147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d97…080ebacked Yes5c25,000$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17580%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes2c24,893$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.255318.9%10 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16cd…247bbacked Yes5c24,450$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8055…44c4backed Yes6c21,656$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.261915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb3…3b3abacked Yes0c21,290$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes5c21,091$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.61358.6%3 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-84.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4814…1968backed Yes6c20,865$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.3160%0 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2970…e1c9backed Yes5c20,609$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.2580%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb807…b03fbacked Yes0c20,490$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5077…5ba3backed Yes6c20,086$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0711…39b3backed Yes5c19,366$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93f1…ff97backed Yes6c19,266$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes5c19,000$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87412630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x459f…7444backed Yes4c18,308$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.11100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ca…9069backed Yes6c18,045$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000120%0 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe6a…5869backed Yes0c17,900$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0673…2e81backed Yes6c16,943$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.2980%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a50…1248backed Yes4c16,500$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.5812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c69…ce50backed Yes7c16,005$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes5c15,860$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.89234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd18f…681ebacked Yes6c15,684$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.45911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-55.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52cd…f61dbacked Yes0c15,380$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0be8…07a7backed Yes6c15,133$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc825…45b7backed Yes0c15,080$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes5c15,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.5837844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3206…da51backed Yes7c14,807$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…0fa9backed Yes7c14,040$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc72b…3756backed Yes7c13,800$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9662941.4%12 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+2.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x268c…ed33backed Yes7c13,657$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-65.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d4…7930backed Yes5c13,356$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62560%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8435…df2cbacked Yes4c13,270$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.5750%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea4a…b565backed Yes5c12,820$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.56100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb367…3f7cbacked Yes5c12,668$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.3690%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f6c…95c6backed Yes6c12,555$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes5c12,500$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.5100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3988…7515backed Yes6c12,285$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bd…e78cbacked Yes4c12,200$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.240%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed Yes5c12,180$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.11175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0067…ed88backed Yes6c11,952$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-46.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31fc…4e30backed Yes5c11,803$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.962520%5 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9abc…2db2backed Yes6c11,701$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.9760%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbdd…f191backed Yes7c11,565$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.3470%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes6c11,497$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.164630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x730b…9055backed Yes5c11,305$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.770%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…1d52backed Yes5c11,234$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.032227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea0c…d854backed Yes4c10,846$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.91120%0 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed Yes6c10,797$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.875530.9%17 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe215…c8afbacked Yes4c10,500$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44160%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff5…2d17backed Yes0c10,120$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb87…3bdbbacked Yes7c10,097$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.9390%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes3c10,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-80.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf57f…e5fcbacked Yes5c10,000$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5181711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-78.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Yes4c10,000$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.270%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed Yes5c10,000$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.35343.4%23 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23ae…5ddebacked Yes5c10,000$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a1a…c653backed Yes4c10,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes5c10,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-66.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb17…9af6backed Yes4c9,723$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b9e…4a64backed Yes7c9,686$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.