TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 1-4

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,813,310
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$996,181

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,813,310 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 305 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3612…5b8bbacked Yes4c517,113$18,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,171.12110%0 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked Yes1c432,238$5,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,872.893212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c248,014$3,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,715.588921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cc0…fb02backed Yes2c173,758$2,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,935.170%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes3c161,771$5,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,333.2613540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb87…3bdbbacked Yes2c135,003$2,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,851.3290%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc928…e2f6backed Yes1c111,650$1,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.1590%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63f3…b6c8backed Yes2c107,988$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,660.3970%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes2c106,066$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8001127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-61.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x73c7…b175backed Yes1c100,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes1c83,652$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.561711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes2c80,115$1,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,743.252445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8435…df2cbacked Yes1c67,168$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.1950%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes0c65,000$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe179…1edebacked Yes1c59,013$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.2340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd18f…681ebacked Yes2c58,274$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.89911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-55.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c57,038$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.196021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x008f…f8b3backed Yes0c56,064$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x71d9…dd76backed Yes2c47,525$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54bf…eb1abacked Yes2c41,055$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6751822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes1c40,271$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.89316.5%2 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7899…af3abacked Yes3c40,036$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes2c39,733$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.2287.1%2 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes3c39,339$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.632015%3 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-34.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb367…3f7cbacked Yes2c38,175$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.290%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe006…39b9backed Yes3c35,711$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.6110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8d…eb66backed Yes2c34,591$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfb…df99backed Yes2c34,521$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.97120%0 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xccec…28ffbacked Yes2c33,739$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.62119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-77%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes2c32,989$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.3617225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2d…d0cfbacked Yes2c31,212$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7ca…9069backed Yes2c30,809$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500120%0 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes3c28,212$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.7510452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes2c27,866$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.652516%4 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed Yes2c27,184$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.941546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8292…84a1backed Yes1c26,919$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4814…1968backed Yes2c25,540$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.58160%0 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes3c25,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.74147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes1c24,205$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.75140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7418…bb6cbacked Yes2c23,358$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe215…c8afbacked Yes2c23,000$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41460%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes1c22,818$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.818219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes3c21,134$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.32128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-66.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes2c20,277$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.53100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c21…d6bfbacked Yes2c20,000$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3931625%4 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26f3…32e8backed Yes2c20,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc3…958abacked Yes0c19,970$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked Yes1c18,691$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.882516%4 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes2c18,345$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.4170%0 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1004…2749backed Yes3c18,157$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.06714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-81.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf144…4c52backed Yes2c17,962$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c17,661$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.7112910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf135…2833backed Yes0c17,070$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfee4…5b91backed Yes2c16,893$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.95425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfddf…8324backed Yes3c16,738$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.1380%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3988…7515backed Yes2c16,560$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b4e…6880backed Yes0c16,510$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1209…0affbacked Yes0c16,210$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31fc…4e30backed Yes2c16,052$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.832520%5 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1592…1e14backed Yes0c15,080$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf46e…5d0abacked Yes3c15,000$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43580%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Yes2c15,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.270%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73f7…b51dbacked Yes3c14,850$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb423…2323backed Yes0c14,740$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeed4…c1c2backed Yes1c14,356$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.98911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-82%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f9c…5ae3backed Yes0c14,220$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…1d52backed Yes1c14,138$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.452227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes2c13,786$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.2316725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes3c13,212$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.59234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x830b…3975backed Yes2c13,057$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes3c13,000$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3251717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ca…04c5backed Yes2c12,511$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.55119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-63.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a8f…1134backed Yes1c12,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15070%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77fc…b5ffbacked Yes2c11,840$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes3c11,753$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.63120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcea5…80f7backed Yes1c11,678$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd46b…0eabbacked Yes0c11,667$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c11,495$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.3996319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2970…e1c9backed Yes2c11,384$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.8380%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x878c…c985backed Yes1c11,000$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-76%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes3c11,000$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.51216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b9e…4a64backed Yes2c10,943$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes2c10,888$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.371811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x760b…26ecbacked Yes2c10,555$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.22810.7%3 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes1c10,505$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.337420.3%15 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f3…91a0backed Yes1c10,324$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8905…32d5backed Yes2c10,244$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes2c10,138$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.143218.8%6 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes2c10,000$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.765038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Yes2c10,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a1a…c653backed Yes2c10,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72f6…a5b5backed Yes2c9,755$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-58.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c18…dc3cbacked Yes0c9,596$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e1b…c4c1backed Yes2c9,325$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1421216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid-27.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a08…0db2backed Yes2c8,906$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.57263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-90.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes2c8,000$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186230%0 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1063…e469backed Yes2c7,900$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.3911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc621…19c9backed Yes4c7,492$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8055…44c4backed Yes2c7,398$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.751915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d2…90abbacked Yes3c7,143$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-61.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.