TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe179…1ede

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: World Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 55 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST1118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick11cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+566.7%+$70
Will 'Civil War' gross less than $17m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$28.58
Will 'Civil War' gross more than $23m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$82.35
Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $200m-250m by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$221.62
Will 'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' gross under $35m opening weekend? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$418Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2024, EDT-100%-$417.82
Will 'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' gross between $35m-40m opening weekend? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2024, EDT-100%-$156.09
Will Paul Giamatti win the Oscar for Best Actor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$413Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$413
Will Barbie win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$55
Will American Fiction win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2024, EDT+376.2%+$197.5
Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross under $70m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,512Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2024, EST-100%-$1,511.53
All 11 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+97.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$49
Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,017Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$1,016.65
Will Berachain not launch a token in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+426.3%+$374.24
Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2024, EST-100%-$38.2
Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$629Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$628.59
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2024, EDT+1,150%+$924.6
No Eigenlayer token launch in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$881Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$880.82
LayerZero airdrop by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,349Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,349.38
zkSync airdrop by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$230.54
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+189.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 10, 2024, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 18, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump posts less than 10 times on X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$150
Will Trump tweet 5 times this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$33.79
All 2 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U19 World Cup: India Under-19s vs Pakistan Under-19sbacked Pakistan Under-19s · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$235.99
International ODI: India vs New Zealand (Game 1)backed New Zealand · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$214.04
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+521.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverevbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+521.1%+$167.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+258.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$651Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT+258.6%+$1,684.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No Reddit IPO in 2024backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$313.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Team Envy vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffsbacked Team Envy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$128.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$908Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$908.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Anti-Hero’ by Taylor Swift win Record of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2024, EST-100%-$439.9
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.