TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Berachain not launch a token in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$161,687
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$163,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,687 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f01…9f44backed Yes67c12,162$8,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,005.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+90.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf311…895bbacked No48c10,992$5,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,276.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33c8…ebf8backed Yes52c10,992$5,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,276.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1448…92fbbacked No50c9,316$4,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,65810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ca2…b2c3backed Yes50c9,316$4,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1547…5febbacked No50c4,162$2,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3ea…9c6abacked Yes50c4,162$2,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0811100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Yes57c4,106$2,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,781.551060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bd2…bc6cbacked No58c4,000$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,320250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea1…1eaabacked Yes59c2,767$1,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.563100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes54c2,689$1,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.797919%15 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes50c2,372$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.533174.2%23 W · 8 L+8.0wins+0.26per pick48cpaid+44.1%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x3424…20f3backed No50c2,086$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f31…1fcbbacked No49c2,042$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd92e…763dbacked Yes50c1,987$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x382c…a0d7backed No53c1,730$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.16714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-79.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbffe…fc15backed Yes50c1,714$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed Yes24c1,678$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.8215041.3%62 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0010…2ccdbacked No45c1,666$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa69f…6874backed No65c1,573$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.081323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-69.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No15c1,556$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.2133329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b2b…2e0bbacked No21c1,500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No13c1,500$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202510%0 W · 51 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaae…6538backed No10c1,301$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe70c…7e03backed Yes75c1,237$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.493100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+70%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75f7…df0cbacked Yes73c920.6$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffa…7ad0backed Yes58c869.56$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba20…4d1bbacked Yes54c662.05$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4114…b9acbacked No43c620.87$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf089…1953backed No36c594.36$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe6b…f255backed No32c533.44$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.722516%4 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe101…580ebacked Yes33c468.15$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+181.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe179…1edebacked Yes19c462.02$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.24922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+97.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89e0…e058backed Yes43c461.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+64.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9a1…35fabacked No77c441.56$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3401233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57cd…ea68backed Yes23c441.56$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+40.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed5e…4553backed Yes40c400.46$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.46742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked No3c336.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.59458.9%4 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-51.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x38b2…a2a2backed Yes78c335.17$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38ae…672fbacked Yes76c329.08$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ad…3313backed Yes56c299.76$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.253100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fdc…7896backed Yes59c264.83$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb61…54afbacked Yes53c251.38$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad67…d6e0backed Yes40c246.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.924723.4%11 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8111…489dbacked Yes22c239.81$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.162560%15 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+46.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x69dd…667ebacked Yes77c222$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcefa…ee74backed Yes80c206.05$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed Yes56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8816247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce50…123bbacked Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd75…fd80backed Yes47c199.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1062100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No13c197.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4816927.8%47 W · 122 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No17c191.96$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.923013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+42.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3ce3…b625backed Yes80c168.89$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.781723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e7c…d472backed Yes37c168.3$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed No10c158.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.36280%0 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0697…33d4backed No52c150$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc604…51e6backed No67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.9wins-0.36per pick63cpaid-65.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1c94…5b86backed Yes73c144.24$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.14650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbe9…185ebacked Yes39c127.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9372…5093backed Yes40c111.78$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7957…2148backed Yes21c106.14$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+163.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x253a…6392backed Yes51c105$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f40…0477backed Yes52c104.75$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.473100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+92.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x05f0…43d0backed Yes65c102.61$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked Yes42c102$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.16825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6720422.1%45 W · 159 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa173…bd9cbacked Yes50c99.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dba…7472backed Yes27c93.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+264.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes45c92.87$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2611833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23f9…cc0dbacked Yes55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5edb…5bdcbacked Yes56c89.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x404a…575dbacked Yes60c88.46$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.964647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+55.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes28c88.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3813424.6%33 W · 101 L-14.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0ac0…ec9abacked No46c82.55$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-64.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…e741backed Yes64c77.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes51c70.17$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.241040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa6…db6abacked Yes37c70$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ad…5fd8backed No76c65.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed No21c63.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.293638.9%14 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6222…825fbacked No51c63.5$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.38633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x167a…e952backed Yes20c61.93$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.424017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf388…7f67backed Yes33c61.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+64.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01ad…9474backed Yes77c56.75$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a79…5312backed Yes21c56$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+200.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x992e…245fbacked Yes77c54.55$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d09…ddc6backed Yes58c52.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa029…7e58backed No49c51.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90e9…de83backed Yes59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f0a…f94ebacked Yes42c49.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1912…9c8ebacked Yes67c47$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc2…b42bbacked Yes51c44.88$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe620…87acbacked Yes57c44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x215e…dd56backed No59c42.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a2e…eac1backed No42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdef9…0ad3backed Yes34c39.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+191.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f1a…82a1backed Yes51c39.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+71.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf258…36ddbacked Yes39c38.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+59.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf604…4627backed Yes47c37.12$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.73666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f67…be72backed No47c36.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.