TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7dd0…2b4b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
581
Categories scored
40
Categories below 50
19

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 66 out of 100 (+0.14 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 66 out of 100; worst AI at 36.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT8951.7%46 W · 43 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 89 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Stefon Diggs arrested by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$74
Stefon Diggs suspended this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+25%+$40
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$437Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$436.88
Spread: Patriots (-4.5)backed Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$540Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+85.2%+$460
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$530Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$529.99
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+88.7%+$443.4
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$250
Will the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$164
Bills vs. Jaguarsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+72.4%+$167.99
Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 51.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+92.3%+$144
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+117.4%+$108
Packers vs. Bears: O/U 45.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+88.7%+$94
Rams vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$114
Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 36.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,750Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$2,750
Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 49.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,481Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+87.2%+$2,163.35
Giants vs. Patriotsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$520
Spread: Patriots (-7.5)backed Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,620Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$1,620
Bengals vs. Ravens: O/U 51.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+112.8%+$265
Spread: Ravens (-7.5)backed Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+112.8%+$530
Bengals vs. Ravens: O/U 52.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$505Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+98%+$495
Chiefs vs. Cowboysbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Giants vs. Lions: O/U 50.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,020Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+96.1%+$980
Steelers vs. Chargersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$288Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$287.78
Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)backed Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+92.3%+$479.88
Showing 25 of 89 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT8637.2%32 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 86 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,004Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,004
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$596Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$204
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$211.4
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,905Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,905
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,732Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+127.1%+$2,201.4
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$122
Spread: Spurs (-1.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$908Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+122.3%+$1,109.58
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$118
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$74
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$490Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$510
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$542Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$500.64
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$530
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$399Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$398.98
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,193Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,192.99
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$238
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.4
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.7
76ers vs. Knicksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.65
76ers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$2,333Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,333.2
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$556Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$556.11
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.04
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$373Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$373.32
Showing 25 of 86 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT3850%19 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$392Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+66.8%+$261.64
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,630Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,630
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$195
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+77%+$174
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$572Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$572
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$500.26
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$4,942Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+61.7%+$3,047.95
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$609Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$608.6
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,251Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+68.1%+$852.54
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$289Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+72.9%+$210.8
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+31.6%+$72
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$447Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$446.93
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$554Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+170.8%+$946
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$28.8
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$506Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+97.6%+$493.99
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$250.45
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$882Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$882
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$576Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$576
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$176
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$814Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$499.14
Will FIFA ban or suspend Israel in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37%+$7.25
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,017Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,017.15
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 30 ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$35
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,183Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+60.6%+$717
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT3455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$285.5
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$926Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$926.27
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$963Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$962.96
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.53
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$885Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$884.99
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$746Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+61%+$454.5
Pump.fun all time high by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$566Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+43%+$243.69
Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$758Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+32.6%+$247.46
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$357Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+68.1%+$243
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$5,808Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+32.1%+$1,864.48
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,970Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+52.3%+$1,030
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$470
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$730Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$730
Will Hyperliquid reach $60 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+29.9%+$10
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$3,005Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+66.4%+$1,995
Will Ethereum dip to $3,200 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,015Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$1,015
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,295Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+96.1%+$2,205
Will Solana dip to $175 in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$147.89
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 29-October 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$123
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$790Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$209.88
Will Solana reach $270 in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$890Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+68.5%+$609.89
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,416Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$578.17
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,338Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+30.8%+$412.5
Will Solana dip to $145 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+29.4%+$65.69
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$934Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+98.2%+$916.5
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3429.4%10 W · 24 L-7.2wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-53.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
AI — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$221
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$188
Will Waymo launch in Denver by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$255
Will Waymo launch in Detroit by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$98
Will Waymo launch in Washington DC by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$132
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$2,142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,141.52
Will Waymo launch in Miami by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$13.89
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$254.55
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+194.1%+$174.33
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$240
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$107
Will Nikita Bier be the next CEO of X?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$125
Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,312Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,312.38
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$289.54
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$240
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$518Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+54.4%+$282
OpenAI browser in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$541Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+41.9%+$226.43
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$41
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.8
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$506Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$505.59
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$189
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$114
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$604Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$604.04
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,393Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,393.1
Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$530Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$529.8
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT3174.2%23 W · 8 L+8.0wins+0.26per pick48cpaid+44.1%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$58.5
Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.55
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$114
Flying Tulip FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+38.9%+$13.16
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$373Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+168.1%+$627
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$5,067Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+46%+$2,332.9
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,939Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+25.5%+$494.46
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,669Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$1,669.44
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,856Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$1,856.23
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+86.9%+$186
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$5,510Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+44.1%+$2,429.59
Will Hyperliquid launch stocks perps in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+104.3%+$389.72
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,764Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+68%+$1,199.6
Will Ethena win the USDH ticker?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+64.5%+$134.61
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$377Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+65.2%+$245.38
Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT+56.2%+$180
Will Pump.fun launch a token by July 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$3,206Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT+82.4%+$2,640.84
Pump.fun airdrop in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$71.96
Will Berachain not launch a token in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,192Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+99.1%+$1,180.53
$PNUT listed on Coinbase in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,365Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+211.3%+$2,884.86
Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+81.8%+$225
Berachain airdrop in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,329Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+89.9%+$1,194.58
Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2024, EST-100%-$18.09
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2024, EST+354.5%+$383.53
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3033.3%10 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.6
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,730Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+497.1%+$8,598.32
Will 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$3,914Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,913.68
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,742Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,741.69
Will 6+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$594Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$594
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,080Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$920
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.1
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$965Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$964.5
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$521Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$520.6
Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.2
Spread: Spain (-1.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+711.2%+$1,402.75
Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+106.1%+$530.64
Will 4+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,109Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$291
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,124Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+51.2%+$575.99
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.4
World Cup: Total Tournament Goals O/U 264.5 backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$279.79
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.4
Spread: United States (-1.5)backed Bosnia and Herzegovina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.2
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.4
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advancebacked Japan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$259.99
World Cup: Scoreless Team?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+29.3%+$11.33
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)backed Scotland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,278Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,278
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$876Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+37%+$324
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT2445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-36%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.99
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$25
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$533Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.3%+$167
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$206.13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,570Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$430
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$898Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+33.6%+$302
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,173Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,173.27
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,956Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,955.82
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$146
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,603Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+67.2%+$1,077.43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,789Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+30.1%+$838.27
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,116Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+33.2%+$1,034.54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$42
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,948Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+78.9%+$2,325.46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of April 13 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$665Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$664.8
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,938Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,938.3
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$140
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.4
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.36
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,920Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,920
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $90 by end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$78.76
Will Gold close above $5000 at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$130
All 24 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST2272.7%16 W · 6 L+5.0wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+45.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+257.1%+$360
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$3,186Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+130.3%+$4,150.44
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$245
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+37%+$8.04
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+203%+$669.98
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+86.4%+$176.12
US government shutdown by October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$88
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.2
Trump cabinet member out before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+26.7%+$48.22
Will Bill Ackman announce a new candidate for NYC Mayor before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+31.1%+$9.5
US military action against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$750Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$250
Elon out of Trump administration before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$550
US-China trade deal before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$435Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$1,065.02
Trump trade deal in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$53
Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water by April 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,415Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+65.9%+$931.82
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+95.2%+$129.14
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$5,722Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+49.1%+$2,811.09
Price of eggs goes up in Trump's first month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,285Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT+99.5%+$1,278.49
Will Matt Gaetz be Trump's Attorney General?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$660Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST+51.5%+$340
Will Trump impose tariffs on China before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$280
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$6,454Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$6,454.23
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$305
All 22 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST2240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Miami Florida win the 2026 College Football National Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$349Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+25.9%+$90.64
Ole Miss vs. Georgiabacked Ole Miss · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$621Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+90%+$558.89
Georgia vs. Alabamabacked Alabama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,308Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$1,307.57
Syracuse vs. Clemsonbacked Syracuse · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$117
Troy vs. Clemsonbacked Clemson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$973Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+25.2%+$245.56
TCU vs. North Carolinabacked North Carolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.93
LSU vs. Clemsonbacked Clemson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,931Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,930.86
Will Ohio State and Notre Dame combine for 47 or more points?backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,455Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$1,455.18
Ohio State vs. Texasbacked Texas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$9,562Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$9,561.84
Will Ole Miss and Duke combine for 52 or more points?backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$525Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+92.3%+$484.8
Notre Dame vs. Georgiabacked Notre Dame · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$455Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST+119.8%+$544.99
Will Oregon win the 2025 College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$10.96
Ohio State vs. Oregonbacked Ohio State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,995Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+75.4%+$2,259.11
Penn State vs. Boise Statebacked Penn State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$5,531Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+29.1%+$1,610.52
Will Tennessee win the 2025 College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST-100%-$92.5
Tennessee vs. Ohio Statebacked Tennessee · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$346Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST-100%-$346.3
Will Clemson win the 2025 College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$20.07
Will Miami (FL) win the 2025 College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$126.45
Will Alabama win the 2025 College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$50
Will SMU make the College Football Playoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$61.3
Will Clemson make the College Football Playoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,810Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$1,809.78
Will Utah beat Arizona by 11 or more points?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$810Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2024, EDT+56.8%+$459.9
All 22 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,327Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+66.5%+$881.66
Will "Michael" score at least 35 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+103.3%+$18.41
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,881Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+48.9%+$919
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$255Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+135%+$344.7
Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+42.9%+$120
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$715Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+25.9%+$185
Will Gaitok die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$343Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT+46.3%+$158.91
Will Greg/Gary die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$3.94
Will Lochlan die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$25
Will Chelsea die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$79
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,071Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$1,071.31
Rege-Jean Page announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Damson Idris announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$23.4
Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 60-69?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST-100%-$380
Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$897Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT+123%+$1,103
Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$375Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$374.73
Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$546Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT+28.2%+$154
'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,309Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,309.13
All 18 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1850%9 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$772Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+340.4%+$2,628
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illinibacked Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+117.8%+$113.94
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$209
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-3.5)backed Tennessee Volunteers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$783Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$666.85
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclonesbacked Tennessee Volunteers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$416Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$575.05
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 164.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$257.73
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Auburn Tigersbacked Auburn Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+78.6%+$176
Connecticut Huskies vs. Florida Gatorsbacked Florida Gators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$729Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$728.64
Spread: BYU Cougars (-5.5)backed Clemson Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+100%+$500
Florida vs. Auburn combine for 161+ points?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$665Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$665
Michigan vs. Auburnbacked Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,145Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,145
Ole Miss vs. Michigan Statebacked Ole Miss · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$3,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,700
Maryland vs. Floridabacked Maryland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$520
North Carolina vs. Ole Missbacked Ole Miss · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$2,347.83
Michigan vs. Marylandbacked Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,553Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$4,347
Wisconsin vs. Michigan Statebacked Wisconsin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$816Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$1,038.94
Clemson vs. Louisvillebacked Clemson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12,756Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$12,756.42
Florida vs. Mississippi Statebacked Mississippi State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$580
All 18 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Golf — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+151%+$361
Will Cameron Young finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$610
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$2,883Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,883.45
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+1,710.3%+$1,984
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.8
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.9
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.5
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.18
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.69
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.8
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.14
Will Adam Scott win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.82
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.28
Will Sam Burns win The 2025 U.S. Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$2,171Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT+52.4%+$1,137.06
Will J.J. Spaun win The 2025 U.S. Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,861Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT+30.8%+$572.21
Will Bryson break a window by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST-100%-$14
Will Bryson complete the Hole in 1 Challenge by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST-100%-$1,049.99
All 17 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 26, 2025, EST1050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$775Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$775.27
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 22 minutes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,060Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+45.1%+$928.98
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,024Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+170.9%+$1,749.22
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3500000 and 3750000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.5
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be 4000000 or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$61
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3750000 and 4000000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.4
Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+45.2%+$146.81
New Diddy charges before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$703Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+141.4%+$994.86
Diddy sex tape released before November? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$140
All 10 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro mugshot released by January 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$116
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$121
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,772Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+170.2%+$4,718.77
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+322.5%+$687
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$330.4
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$246
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+78.6%+$131.99
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$150.15
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$972Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$972.11
All 10 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 16, 2025, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+40%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
MLB — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-71.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$120
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$73.5
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$780Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$220
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,600Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+25%+$400
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,475Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,475
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$480.33
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$764Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$763.93
Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,399Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,398.94
All 9 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-47%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$551Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$550.99
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+28.2%+$110
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$339
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$665Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$665
Will T1 win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$330
Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$898Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+78%+$699.92
MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Anyone's Legendbacked Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$187.33
MSI Playoffs: Gen.G vs. T1backed Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+70.4%+$223.12
MSI Playoffs: CTBC Flying Oyster vs. Anyone's Legendbacked CTBC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$174.91
All 9 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+28.2%+$66
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$105
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$135
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for 10 seconds or more on October 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+334.8%+$231
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$190
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.79
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
TikTok sale announced before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$315
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Weather — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-77.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
IPO — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+79.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$215
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,730Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+105.3%+$1,821.12
Bruins vs. Capitalsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+37.8%+$66.63
Panthers vs. Oilersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT+100%+$500
All 4 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Olympics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+42.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
WNBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)backed Paris Saint-Germain FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Inter Miami vs. FC Porto end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$46
All 3 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
O/U 3.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,600Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+87.5%+$1,400
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Della Maddalena · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$135
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Tyson knockout Jake Paul?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,579Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+29.4%+$757.12
Hoffman vs. Warwickbacked Warwick · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$456Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT-100%-$455.52
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$691Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$691.24
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$220
All 2 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+129.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mariano vs Jungleman: Higher winnings at Hustler Casino on Friday?backed Jungleman · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+129.9%+$19.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,225Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+104.1%+$1,274.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+85.2%+$92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,780Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+43.9%+$1,220
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 14, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 130 or more times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$430Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2024, EDT+39.5%+$170
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: FOKUS vs Enterprise Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group Bbacked Enterprise Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$189
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.