NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd99d212b9ecc8f1de6eb3dd8da0d74ef6698281fdc0c7a2b2e0a9116037e481b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Under | 0c | 10,771$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 312 | 22.1%69 W · 243 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 37c | 8,596$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,395.87 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 67c | 3,264$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 145 | 56.6%82 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 66c | 2,530$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.71 | 649 | 48.2%313 W · 336 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 63c | 2,439$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.9 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 19c | 2,080$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.93 | 688 | 38.5%265 W · 423 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 7c | 2,051$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,912.54 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 5c | 1,946$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,845.02 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e4…6f6bbacked Over | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.84 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 33c | 988.02$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.27 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Over | 35c | 859.6$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.6 | 524 | 61.6%323 W · 201 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 60c | 760.2$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.65 | 320 | 45.3%145 W · 175 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146c…b807backed Under | 7c | 744.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 204 | 41.7%85 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 36c | 623.44$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.24 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 64c | 555$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.2 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11e1…8d38backed Under | 67c | 519.03$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 61c | 499.99$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…beedbacked Over | 60c | 429$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Under | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Under | 3c | 358.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 29c | 344.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.84 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 323.67$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Over | 35c | 258.66$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.28 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d6…3b10backed Under | 43c | 254.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a15…e238backed Under | 23c | 218.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 65c | 209.93$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.42 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…3655backed Over | 35c | 205.83$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked Over | 19c | 202.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.47 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x534b…983fbacked Over | 17c | 200$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.21 | 136 | 38.2%52 W · 84 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…ca37backed Over | 28c | 179.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.73 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Under | 47c | 175$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.33 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…644cbacked Under | 66c | 166.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 69c | 144.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…4b0dbacked Over | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 65c | 137.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc06…d3b7backed Under | 66c | 137$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af5…154cbacked Over | 35c | 131.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.78 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6607…5bd9backed Under | 65c | 130$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Over | 80c | 125.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 165 | 55.8%92 W · 73 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ce…e232backed Under | 13c | 125.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 10c | 116.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.06 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Under | 49c | 113$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Under | 47c | 102.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 34c | 100.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 663 | 52.6%349 W · 314 L | +30.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Under | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 395 | 48.4%191 W · 204 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6196…1a64backed Under | 66c | 98.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 256 | 66.8%171 W · 85 L | +16.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 33c | 89.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 304 | 48.4%147 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 67c | 85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…cd42backed Under | 32c | 82.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…2451backed Over | 33c | 76.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…08e3backed Under | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 67c | 71.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 611 | 51.4%314 W · 297 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Under | 44c | 67.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 67c | 65.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…0675backed Over | 33c | 63.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Over | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 405 | 48.4%196 W · 209 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Under | 37c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under | 71c | 48.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 67c | 47.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Under | 33c | 44.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf09d…d23fbacked Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed Under | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d8f5backed Under | 67c | 37.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 92 | 71.7%66 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 66c | 35.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 521 | 50.9%265 W · 256 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9d…122ebacked Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c44…4b9dbacked Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…b855backed Under | 69c | 28.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 67c | 26.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…0f80backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Over | 75c | 18.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 163 | 69.9%114 W · 49 L | +18.6wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 74c | 17.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 210 | 46.2%97 W · 113 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Spurs won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. ThunderSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.