NBA · resolved market
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97072d4fb678c8e598dba53fc5853bae605e080b1b7a3daebb9a2309d0a34f37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Yes | 55c | 2,097$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.12 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…b989backed No | 45c | 1,860$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.87 | 492 | 44.3%218 W · 274 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb56…2492backed Yes | 58c | 867.97$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 50c | 725.97$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.99 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91dd…2730backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c06…aa42backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 42c | 365.07$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.35 | 428 | 42.5%182 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…e717backed Yes | 39c | 363.79$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.58 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b7…adb1backed No | 49c | 309.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.08 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…a91ebacked No | 49c | 303.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.56 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13c9…5e53backed No | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 305 | 44.6%136 W · 169 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 43c | 209.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…761bbacked Yes | 52c | 190$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -15.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked No | 46c | 169.57$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.57 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x743c…db89backed No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1646…2f81backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 346 | 61.6%213 W · 133 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 45c | 82.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4f…2510backed No | 50c | 78.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a1…d1eebacked Yes | 54c | 70.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked Yes | 48c | 64.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…2bb3backed No | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc98e…2341backed No | 46c | 56.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…f1d7backed Yes | 55c | 45.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…270ebacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed No | 50c | 40.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…516abacked No | 44c | 39.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…a5dfbacked Yes | 55c | 39.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed No | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…e43cbacked Yes | 31c | 38.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b09…3be1backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…80bfbacked No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4480…8c0ebacked No | 50c | 30.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 51c | 28.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 41c | 24.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2661…6c28backed No | 50c | 20.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Spurs won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. ThunderSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.