NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e5e8825804d09f60155fd54c95e857e1c0b89657b48d0e8c195bd8e352d2cc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Thunder
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Thunder | 66c | 10,928$7,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,246.42 | 201 | 55.7%112 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Spurs | 34c | 6,921$2,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,567.77 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Spurs | 34c | 2,013$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.51 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Spurs | 35c | 1,397$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.65 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…9b23backed Spurs | 35c | 1,080$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.98 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Spurs | 36c | 711.9$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.9 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Spurs | 37c | 657.03$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.1 | 202 | 47.5%96 W · 106 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder | 64c | 633.33$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.33 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Spurs | 45c | 603.33$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.3 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bea…87b7backed Thunder | 46c | 467.1$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.89 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52f8…ad19backed Thunder | 45c | 448.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 133 | 42.9%57 W · 76 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Thunder | 27c | 447.92$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.66 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c0…f389backed Thunder | 27c | 408.95$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.3 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Spurs | 31c | 404.28$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.95 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Spurs | 35c | 387.2$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.68 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Thunder | 64c | 386.18$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.15 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Spurs | 64c | 378.27$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.53 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…0f39backed Thunder | 55c | 329.79$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Spurs | 67c | 293.73$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…fe9abacked Spurs | 37c | 260.46$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…270abacked Spurs | 54c | 220.74$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Thunder | 65c | 206.17$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.01 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Thunder | 65c | 206.17$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.01 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Spurs | 44c | 199.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Spurs | 37c | 178.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.48 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Spurs | 31c | 166.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.87 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Thunder | 32c | 148.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 196 | 50.5%99 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Thunder | 46c | 141.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 149 | 40.3%60 W · 89 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…ca29backed Thunder | 63c | 136.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…da96backed Spurs | 37c | 135.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Spurs | 75c | 87.88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Spurs | 32c | 83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Spurs | 32c | 83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x787d…aecdbacked Thunder | 64c | 82.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x743c…db89backed Spurs | 37c | 79.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Spurs | 54c | 78.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Thunder | 64c | 76.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | -18.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…5095backed Spurs | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff4…8720backed Spurs | 45c | 70.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…4eedbacked Spurs | 36c | 70.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Thunder | 62c | 59.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Thunder | 55c | 58.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Spurs | 35c | 57.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 262 | 33.6%88 W · 174 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e1…c7d6backed Thunder | 25c | 53.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Spurs | 58c | 50.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34c…ca55backed Spurs | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.39per pick | 43cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Spurs | 31c | 49.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Thunder | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Spurs | 54c | 44.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dec…058cbacked Thunder | 65c | 44.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da1…e626backed Spurs | 37c | 39.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9785…2c5abacked Spurs | 36c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Spurs | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +11.0wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Thunder | 64c | 31.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Spurs | 69c | 31.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Thunder | 44c | 31.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 168 | 67.3%113 W · 55 L | +13.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…943cbacked Thunder | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Spurs | 35c | 30.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 279 | 42.7%119 W · 160 L | -14.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…7acdbacked Thunder | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Thunder | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc2…8b9bbacked Thunder | 43c | 27.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Thunder | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Thunder | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Spurs | 72c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Spurs won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. ThunderSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.