NBA · resolved market
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfc0127ad91dcbda733c23313ad7d067018902ba8143fac446086acbfa07b486
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 49c | 1,849$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.85 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked No | 50c | 1,192$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 277 | 46.6%129 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 48c | 1,031$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.05 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…e5fdbacked Yes | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.99 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +82%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53e4…6f6bbacked Yes | 51c | 968.76$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.07 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked No | 47c | 680.84$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb56…2492backed Yes | 52c | 620.69$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.02 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f85…7e17backed Yes | 53c | 471.85$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.85 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed No | 49c | 299.96$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.98 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…f419backed Yes | 57c | 289.47$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 50c | 251.26$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.63 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…4a56backed Yes | 51c | 239.24$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.24 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Yes | 54c | 230.64$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.09 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1646…2f81backed Yes | 51c | 200.17$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.31 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 51c | 199.97$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Yes | 50c | 198.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.19 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…761bbacked Yes | 52c | 190$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -15.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed No | 48c | 185$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Yes | 45c | 181.39$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.76 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 48c | 180$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 50c | 177.81$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Yes | 51c | 168.63$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…2f8bbacked Yes | 51c | 153.65$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c0…2713backed Yes | 51c | 149.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…9530backed Yes | 69c | 145.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked No | 52c | 124.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30bb…f258backed Yes | 51c | 114$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked No | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 47c | 102.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaff4…8720backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Yes | 50c | 102$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…4b60backed No | 52c | 101.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…c45dbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…5095backed Yes | 52c | 96.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…ef54backed No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x743c…db89backed No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9608…8cf3backed No | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 143 | 57.3%82 W · 61 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed No | 54c | 92.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 346 | 61.6%213 W · 133 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…b331backed No | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 398 | 64.3%256 W · 142 L | +33.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 447 | 47%210 W · 237 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 48c | 69.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…3313backed Yes | 47c | 69.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 49c | 66.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 47c | 65.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed Yes | 51c | 55.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes | 53c | 51.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed No | 49c | 50.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 304 | 48.4%147 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed No | 49c | 46.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f3…d3e7backed Yes | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4480…8c0ebacked Yes | 51c | 43.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630b…34ffbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147f…5f7bbacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…99eebacked Yes | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…7873backed Yes | 50c | 39.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6795…4a4cbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…c232backed Yes | 52c | 37.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 49c | 37.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98e…2341backed Yes | 50c | 35.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed No | 52c | 30.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 188 | 53.7%101 W · 87 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 51c | 29.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Yes | 68c | 29.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f75…cc2abacked Yes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…1025backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed No | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 54c | 23.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7562…769dbacked No | 54c | 19.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Spurs won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. ThunderSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.