TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Thunder, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,456,582
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,404,283

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,456,582 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 594 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Spurs49c303,387$148,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154,727.1316841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Thunder53c189,499$100,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,434.4717251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Spurs50c120,000$59,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,599.843844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Thunder51c100,000$51,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,00020545.9%94 W · 111 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f8c…e275backed Thunder51c90,000$45,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,90030%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Spurs49c83,753$41,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,306.0464948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Thunder50c81,774$40,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,886.8714538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Thunder9c75,048$7,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,118.4126753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Spurs47c74,172$34,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,311.1329245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a114backed Thunder51c72,577$37,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,014.313554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+19.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72f8…8ea0backed Thunder52c59,615$31,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,0001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Thunder50c56,179$28,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,089.3732653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Spurs48c43,528$20,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,641.4172648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder51c43,269$22,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,195.034,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Thunder51c40,000$20,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,4002045%9 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f4…544cbacked Thunder53c40,000$21,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,2003920.5%8 W · 31 L-11.0wins-0.28per pick49cpaid-58.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked Thunder50c40,000$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,0005036%18 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf689…9d83backed Thunder50c39,973$19,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,986.51747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Spurs47c30,191$14,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,951.5739842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef0…df4abacked Thunder52c29,907$15,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,600.0520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x966c…9b1abacked Thunder51c29,412$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,0002951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Spurs49c27,975$13,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,267.3459347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Spurs50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,00049244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Spurs48c20,000$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,399.9910248%49 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Thunder51c19,608$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00011654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Spurs49c18,515$9,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,464.4655251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Spurs50c17,786$8,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,893.0118651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder52c15,000$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,8002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2003…af6fbacked Thunder18c14,150$2,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,610.165829.3%17 W · 41 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed Thunder51c13,000$6,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,630650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Spurs47c12,737$5,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,750.6131644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Spurs50c12,471$6,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,235.3115952.8%84 W · 75 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2734…6d9ebacked Thunder52c9,615$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0006144.3%27 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Spurs48c9,500$4,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,939.9935744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Spurs51c9,071$4,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,420.1148845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Thunder51c9,000$4,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,589.9866250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Spurs50c8,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2114…84c5backed Thunder51c7,843$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0005935.6%21 W · 38 L-8.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Thunder5c7,181$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.155425.9%14 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Thunder50c7,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Spurs47c6,000$2,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,18079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Spurs50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0005954.2%32 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1788…0994backed Spurs50c5,841$2,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,920.641225%3 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-50.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Thunder11c5,755$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.91,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Spurs48c5,629$2,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,926.966,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Spurs47c5,624$2,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,980.861,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa538…12c3backed Thunder51c5,616$2,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,872.972975.9%22 W · 7 L+7.1wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Spurs49c5,489$2,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,774.2465045.1%293 W · 357 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Thunder52c4,430$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30020155.7%112 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Thunder5c4,321$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2102,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a54…7191backed Spurs50c4,046$2,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,023.145345.3%24 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs61c4,024$2,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,584.368,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Spurs50c4,001$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.271,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6111…4742backed Spurs51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9601471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+31.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Thunder51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04016946.7%79 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5672…5019backed Thunder51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Spurs50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00043352.2%226 W · 207 L+19.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs48c4,000$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,071.094,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Spurs48c3,999$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.6157950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Spurs47c3,982$1,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.73,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc5b…5443backed Thunder53c3,774$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00012542.4%53 W · 72 L-11.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Thunder11c3,614$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.881,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x250e…e864backed Spurs48c3,562$1,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.993551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Spurs50c3,461$1,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,730.41,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Thunder51c3,266$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.6664651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Spurs50c3,164$1,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,582.223259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+23.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Spurs49c3,061$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.2240451.5%208 W · 196 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Spurs50c3,030$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,51524847.6%118 W · 130 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Spurs50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Spurs50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5004761.7%29 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Spurs50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5003847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Spurs50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50044252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cc…0b39backed Thunder51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5303953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Spurs49c3,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,54050346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Spurs51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.9910248%49 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Thunder10c2,983$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.432,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Spurs49c2,742$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.6786641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Thunder51c2,590$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.096028.3%17 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Thunder51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.9919747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Spurs49c2,497$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,281.7843438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Spurs48c2,377$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.812,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Thunder11c2,254$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.1317946.4%83 W · 96 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Thunder5c2,180$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.381,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac6…a8cebacked Spurs49c2,110$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.081338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Spurs48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.3317247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Spurs49c2,040$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.416050%80 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed Thunder51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0203852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Spurs51c2,000$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99066352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Spurs50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00011440.4%46 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7cc…791fbacked Thunder51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Thunder6c1,969$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.7245445.2%205 W · 249 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb6…a0f6backed Spurs50c1,958$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f1c…5f43backed Spurs48c1,866$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.782846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Thunder50c1,842$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9211,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Thunder8c1,841$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9536051.7%186 W · 174 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0de…8048backed Thunder53c1,698$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9005240.4%21 W · 31 L-8.6wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-28.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3673…2d13backed Spurs49c1,682$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.827143.7%31 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Spurs49c1,665$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.071,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Spurs49c1,500$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.9623742.6%101 W · 136 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed Thunder51c1,486$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.8618444.6%82 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.