TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Spursof Thunder, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,914
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,832

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,914 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Spurs56c499.97$280 inWon+$219.9936453%193 W · 171 L-17.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Spurs47c482.64$227 inWon+$255.879650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Thunder53c391.96$207 inLost-$207.4215044.7%67 W · 83 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0c3…0230backed Thunder49c329.94$161 inLost-$160.957545.3%34 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs52c213.43$111 inWon+$102.454,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca85…7453backed Thunder48c208.33$100 inLost-$1006346%29 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2df…ca29backed Thunder44c196.29$86 inLost-$86.4217247.7%82 W · 90 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Thunder44c152.44$67 inLost-$67.071050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b4…3824backed Thunder53c122.64$65 inLost-$6515149.7%75 W · 76 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Spurs55c103.52$57 inWon+$46.6542740.3%172 W · 255 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Spurs52c79.08$41 inWon+$38.351,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Thunder44c68.18$30 inLost-$303259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7c0…24eebacked Thunder45c59$27 inLost-$26.558451.2%43 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x970f…f167backed Spurs56c50$28 inWon+$225556.4%31 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Thunder44c50$22 inLost-$222,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Spurs52c50$26 inWon+$2430448.4%147 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Thunder44c34.59$15 inLost-$15.2255444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Spurs50c26.39$13 inWon+$13.1933356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.