NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x023bbf22b3c1b9c4cbe41f1e613c08b8b29afb68e9af4277a56593ef054856b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 42c | 8,226$3,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,745.57 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 58c | 5,728$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,299.86 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 7c | 2,014$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,872.93 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 40c | 1,613$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.67 | 663 | 52.6%349 W · 314 L | +30.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 60c | 1,547$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.81 | 649 | 48.2%313 W · 336 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Over | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 524 | 61.6%323 W · 201 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7805…1baebacked Under | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Under | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ee…5506backed Over | 37c | 882.56$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 60c | 592.55$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.39 | 320 | 45.3%145 W · 175 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 62c | 556.97$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.03 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Under | 58c | 555$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.9 | 214 | 46.7%100 W · 114 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 59c | 478.84$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.52 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 61c | 385.59$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.55 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Under | 45c | 333$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.85 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Over | 55c | 333$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.85 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 53c | 308.11$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.84 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa272…797abacked Over | 42c | 247.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 11c | 241.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.81 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 60c | 234.55$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.61 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 59c | 208.26$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x041f…4af7backed Under | 59c | 205.69$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.36 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 50c | 200.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ea…b955backed Over | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…3b4dbacked Under | 61c | 181.44$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…5284backed Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 61c | 166.82$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 255 | 54.5%139 W · 116 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 59c | 160$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…beedbacked Under | 50c | 156.91$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Over | 41c | 141.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | -18.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 73c | 133.94$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…915dbacked Over | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 17c | 116.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 250 | 45.6%114 W · 136 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 20c | 102.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…0be0backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd92…4cf0backed Under | 26c | 96.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 40c | 90.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 304 | 48.4%147 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…7020backed Under | 73c | 89.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…4e66backed Under | 59c | 80.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Under | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Under | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 215 | 74.4%160 W · 55 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc059…a1edbacked Under | 63c | 68.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 405 | 48.4%196 W · 209 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 58c | 51.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7272backed Under | 59c | 41.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09d…d23fbacked Under | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…83a4backed Under | 59c | 38.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Over | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…307abacked Over | 53c | 35.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…5c4bbacked Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Over | 73c | 35.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…62aebacked Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…3fc2backed Under | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcebe…0720backed Under | 66c | 15.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Spurs won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. ThunderSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.