NBA · resolved market
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41a46749d0fad8ca83ef481eff44475558a3ead88e0816b11b929ab01dca9b18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked No | 63c | 3,057$1,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.55 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 25c | 1,805$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.25 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…3a84backed No | 51c | 1,230$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.54 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…3313backed Yes | 49c | 942.94$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Yes | 21c | 642$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.83 | 266 | 39.8%106 W · 160 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Yes | 19c | 447$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.05 | 330 | 30.9%102 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Yes | 24c | 437$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.81 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Yes | 19c | 406$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 166 | 40.4%67 W · 99 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Yes | 19c | 406$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 234 | 41.5%97 W · 137 L | +13.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…f22abacked Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Yes | 22c | 300$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Yes | 17c | 286$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…cca4backed Yes | 17c | 284.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 25c | 266.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…a426backed Yes | 55c | 201.8$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 144 | 49.3%71 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 455 | 44.8%204 W · 251 L | +21.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Yes | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 46c | 184.95$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.77 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Yes | 52c | 169.85$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 256 | 57%146 W · 110 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a4…c6a9backed Yes | 56c | 167.19$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…25c2backed Yes | 18c | 161.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 46c | 145$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Yes | 20c | 108$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | +16.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 99 | 75.8%75 W · 24 L | +16.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…28d2backed Yes | 52c | 99.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x743c…db89backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 45c | 79.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 46c | 78.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd755…61a1backed Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Yes | 48c | 53.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 218 | 43.6%95 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 304 | 48.4%147 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…f611backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed No | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed No | 46c | 42.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 141 | 48.2%68 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…4c99backed No | 48c | 41.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed No | 45c | 37.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 47c | 36.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 447 | 47%210 W · 237 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…c5c6backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89ba…a6f6backed Yes | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Yes | 51c | 28.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…9291backed Yes | 54c | 27.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb9…e983backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed No | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 294 | 49.7%146 W · 148 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 49c | 21.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed No | 48c | 20.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Spurs won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. ThunderSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.