TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Spursof Thunder, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,614
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,174

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,614 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Thunder53c5,042$2,657 inLost-$2,657.0820155.7%112 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Spurs49c3,746$1,822 inWon+$1,924.6450346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Spurs47c3,385$1,591 inWon+$1,7946445.3%29 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2114…84c5backed Thunder51c1,961$1,000 inLost-$1,0005935.6%21 W · 38 L-8.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8590…07adbacked Spurs50c1,444$717 inWon+$726.275945.8%27 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Thunder50c990$495 inLost-$49518749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Thunder54c628.69$339 inLost-$339.493053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Spurs46c444.82$205 inWon+$240.269848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Thunder51c411.76$210 inLost-$21021950.2%110 W · 109 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…f8bebacked Thunder51c408.61$208 inLost-$208.395339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdaaf…051bbacked Spurs50c342.86$173 inWon+$169.782445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs46c119.62$55 inWon+$64.64,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Spurs47c117.49$56 inWon+$61.7518653.2%99 W · 87 L+9.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d1d…d8c0backed Spurs50c110$55 inWon+$555139.2%20 W · 31 L-7.4wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-26.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5345…666abacked Thunder51c106.18$54 inLost-$54.156942%29 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…24eebacked Thunder50c102$51 inLost-$518451.2%43 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Spurs50c100$50 inWon+$5025352.6%133 W · 120 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Thunder54c92.69$50 inLost-$5034849.7%173 W · 175 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Thunder50c60$30 inLost-$303259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb25…03e5backed Spurs49c40.82$20 inWon+$20.822466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+23.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb980…516abacked Spurs51c39.22$20 inWon+$19.221752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79c7…2699backed Thunder51c39.22$20 inLost-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Spurs80c38.1$30 inWon+$7.7217946.4%83 W · 96 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a6e…9bc5backed Thunder54c37.04$20 inLost-$208354.2%45 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed Thunder51c29.41$15 inLost-$157444.6%33 W · 41 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6136…64f8backed Spurs51c29.41$15 inWon+$14.411233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Thunder52c26.98$14 inLost-$14.0322753.3%121 W · 106 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56c4…580cbacked Thunder51c24.35$12 inLost-$12.42666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+37.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Spurs48c24$12 inWon+$12.4843052.3%225 W · 205 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Spurs48c24$12 inWon+$12.485671.4%40 W · 16 L+11.0wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+45.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x69ad…365abacked Spurs49c23.2$11 inWon+$11.913148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7287…b38ebacked Thunder54c18.76$10 inLost-$10.13850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.