TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 113.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,724
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,067

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,724 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed Over48c2,259$1,084 inLost-$1,084.569848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca28…49debacked Under51c2,040$1,040 inWon+$999.592850%14 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Under52c1,679$873 inWon+$806.235269.2%36 W · 16 L+8.7wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+32.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Over48c1,667$800 inLost-$800.1656646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under52c1,667$867 inWon+$800.1664651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Under52c1,662$864 inWon+$797.8712451.6%64 W · 60 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over43c1,443$620 inLost-$620.372,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa66d…6daabacked Under56c1,242$700 inWon+$542.022356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b3b…07f7backed Under57c1,193$678 inWon+$514.493850%19 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8476…dc8dbacked Over49c882.35$432 inLost-$432.352850%14 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Over49c816.33$400 inLost-$40027746.6%129 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over44c781.63$344 inLost-$343.922,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over48c600$288 inLost-$2881,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over48c400$192 inLost-$19262051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed Under55c399.97$220 inWon+$180.1416251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Over44c340.99$150 inLost-$150.0449852.6%262 W · 236 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over48c300.1$144 inLost-$144.0560049.8%299 W · 301 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36ed…4a93backed Over45c252.52$114 inLost-$113.633138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-21.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Under52c250$130 inWon+$12029449.7%146 W · 148 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Over49c250$123 inLost-$122.57451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8fd…3e24backed Under56c192$108 inWon+$84.481952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7987…884abacked Over49c153.06$75 inLost-$7525850%129 W · 129 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Under52c114.14$60 inWon+$54.6336153.5%193 W · 168 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Under51c105.76$54 inWon+$51.8242740.3%172 W · 255 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over47c81.02$38 inLost-$38.481,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under52c71.4$37 inWon+$34.2771449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Over45c66.67$30 inLost-$303259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over24c60.53$15 inLost-$14.730842.9%132 W · 176 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Over48c40.93$20 inLost-$19.6455444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over43c40.1$17 inLost-$17.241,32249.9%660 W · 662 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72e0…789dbacked Under54c36.73$20 inWon+$16.736100%6 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe2df…ca29backed Under48c31.92$15 inWon+$16.617247.7%82 W · 90 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9883…1d31backed Over47c31.89$15 inLost-$14.993641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Over48c31.15$15 inLost-$14.9513754%74 W · 63 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Over45c31$14 inLost-$13.9516150.9%82 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x009b…e769backed Under53c29$16 inWon+$13.4912357.7%71 W · 52 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over45c28.86$13 inLost-$13.1118853.7%101 W · 87 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5569…c927backed Under55c25.99$14 inWon+$11.665453.7%29 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72b8…6253backed Over53c20$11 inLost-$10.61435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.